CRV / BTC - Inverted Head and Shoulders may still be in play

29 авг. 2020 г.

It hasn't reached the same peaks and valleys drawn, but it's still following the pattern drawn at this point. May drop down to bottom of right shoulder before heading up. Breaking below that invalidates the setup. If we form the right shoulder, we may re-test recent highs. If that occurs, a break above recent highs sets this up for a significant move.

CRV token rewards from farming on the crv dao website are not being dumped nearly as much as they were when this first launched. To the contrary, many tokens are getting locked into defi programs. There is potential for this to make a very significant move, especially if we catch up to comparable defi tokens' MC/TVL ratio, which has been somewhere between 0.04-0.06, as compared to tokens like YFI and COMP which have been 10x that at 0.4-0.6.

See data on Marketcap / Total Value Locked here (can also search for YFI and COMP for comparison):

coingecko.com/en/coins/curve-dao-token

29 авг. 2020 г.

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May play out something like this:

29 авг. 2020 г.

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Zooming in, we are approaching bottom of triangle, but haven't touched it yet - cross and stay below triangle invalidates setup:

29 авг. 2020 г.

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Decision time, we are at the bottom of the triangle, need to move up soon or trade idea is invalid - a brief move below is "okay", we don't want to fall lower than the purple line, and if we drop that low it needs to be very short-lived, 2H or 4H candle should only be a wick, not a full candle if that occurs.

29 авг. 2020 г.

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Broke below triangle, have not broken down below purple line, 4H candle still has a little less than an hour left on it. We need to see how this candle finishes, and how the next 4H candle behaves:

29 авг. 2020 г.

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Adjusted triangle and lines (see previous update above) - line chart doesn't have us dropping as low as the current 4H candle as well, I say we are still good for this to play out as long as we keep above the purple line on the 4H candle and the next one or more candles:

29 авг. 2020 г.

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4H candle bottom is turning into a wick, this is a good sign:

30 авг. 2020 г.

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We may be headed back up!

30 авг. 2020 г.

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Looking better and better for this to occur:

30 авг. 2020 г.

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Careful here, we are re-testing the bottom of my original triangle (see main chart not comments)