CrowdStrike Report Earnings Next Week. What Do Its Charts Say?
CrowdStrike 
CRWD will release Q3 earnings next Tuesday (Nov. 26) after the bell, unveiling results for a quarter that included the cybersecurity company’s July software update that sparked a worldwide network outage. Let’s see what the stock’s technical and fundamentals say ahead of the report.
CrowdStrike’s Fundamental Analysis
CRWD’s July 19 meltdown affected an estimated 8.5 million computers worldwide, leaving thousands of businesses and government agencies unable to connect to their systems -- sometimes for days.
Some experts have described the incident as history’s worst computer outage, with published reports putting worldwide economic impacts at $10 billion.
The meltdown badly hit cloud-services provider Microsoft
MSFT, while it also paralyzed systems at Delta Air Lines 
DAL for days. Delta and CrowdStrike have since sued each other.
Still, CrowdStrike impressed investors just weeks later in August when it reported Q2 results that included earnings and revenue beats.
While acknowledging those numbers covered the three-month period that preceded the July 19 meltdown, the results showed 31.7% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter. Management also issued reduced yet respectable guidance for Q3 despite the fact that that period would include July’s outage and its immediate aftermath.
As I write this, the Street is looking for CrowdStrike to report $0.81 in adjusted earnings per share on $983 million of revenues for its latest quarter. Basically, Wall Street seems to have played it safe and kept its estimates within the guidance that management provided back in August.
Beyond CrowdStrike’s Q3 earnings and revenues, investors will keep their eyes on the company’s subscription-driven revenue growth, annually recurring revenue, adjusted gross margin and module-adoption rates.
The company’s Q2 numbers showed CRWD generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow in the 12 months ended July 31.
That included $162.8 million of capital expenditure (or “capex”), leaving CrowdStrike with $1.2 billion of free cash flow. However, the firm has not returned capital to shareholders via dividends or share buybacks.
Looking over CRWD’s balance sheet, the company had $4.4 billion in cash as of July 31, with current assets totaling $5.9 billion.
Current liabilities added up to $2.7 billion, creating a 1.9 current ratio. That seems quite strong.
Also note that $2.4 billion of CrowdStrike’s current liabilities were in the form of unearned revenue, which isn’t a true financial obligation. If we adjust for this unearned revenue, the firm's current ratio as of July 31 would rise to 13.7 -- a truly jaw-dropping level as far as I’m concerned.
Meanwhile, the company’s total assets as of July 31 hit $7.2 billion, of which intangibles represented only about 13.3%.
Total liabilities less equity came to $4.3 billion, but that included $743 million in long-term debt that the firm could get rid of out of pocket if so desired. Another $745 million represented unearned credit.
CrowdStrike’s Technical Analysis
Here’s CrowdStrike’s chart going back roughly one year:
The chart shows a regression model of a trend that had been in place from January 2023 until CrowdStrike’s outage hit in July, which caused the stock to sell off.
July’s pullback took CRWD back to about $207.60 -- the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its entire January 2023-July 2024 rally.
Now, let's zoom in on the past six months:
This chart shows CrowdStrike’s Fibonacci models drawn up in teal, with regression models for the stock in blue and red.
On this time scale, readers will see that when CRWD rebounded from its early August low, the stock hit resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its January 2023-July 2024 move higher. However, CrowdStrike overcame that about two weeks ago.
The stock has also developed a second trend that fits neatly into a regression model.
CrowdStrike is heading into earnings trading above its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted with a green line), 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line) and 200-day SMA (denoted with a red line). That’s not a bad place to be.
Additionally, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) looks very strong, but not quite overbought.
CrowdStrike’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is leaning bullish as well.
The stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line) is above its 26-day EMA (the gold line) -- and both are above zero. So is the histogram of CrowdStrike’s 9-day EMA (denoted with blue bars).
For the purposes of trading CRWD going into and maybe out of earnings, all of the above created moving pivot at the current regression model’s upper trendline. That’s about $363 vs. the $357.55 that CrowdStrike closed at on Thursday.
But mind you, while breaking this level is the key to CrowdStrike seeing higher target prices, CRWD has also failed to break through this rising line five times since late August.
(Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long CRWD and MSFT at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
CRWD will release Q3 earnings next Tuesday (Nov. 26) after the bell, unveiling results for a quarter that included the cybersecurity company’s July software update that sparked a worldwide network outage. Let’s see what the stock’s technical and fundamentals say ahead of the report.CrowdStrike’s Fundamental Analysis
CRWD’s July 19 meltdown affected an estimated 8.5 million computers worldwide, leaving thousands of businesses and government agencies unable to connect to their systems -- sometimes for days.
Some experts have described the incident as history’s worst computer outage, with published reports putting worldwide economic impacts at $10 billion.
The meltdown badly hit cloud-services provider Microsoft
MSFT, while it also paralyzed systems at Delta Air Lines DAL for days. Delta and CrowdStrike have since sued each other.Still, CrowdStrike impressed investors just weeks later in August when it reported Q2 results that included earnings and revenue beats.
While acknowledging those numbers covered the three-month period that preceded the July 19 meltdown, the results showed 31.7% year-over-year revenue growth for the quarter. Management also issued reduced yet respectable guidance for Q3 despite the fact that that period would include July’s outage and its immediate aftermath.
As I write this, the Street is looking for CrowdStrike to report $0.81 in adjusted earnings per share on $983 million of revenues for its latest quarter. Basically, Wall Street seems to have played it safe and kept its estimates within the guidance that management provided back in August.
Beyond CrowdStrike’s Q3 earnings and revenues, investors will keep their eyes on the company’s subscription-driven revenue growth, annually recurring revenue, adjusted gross margin and module-adoption rates.
The company’s Q2 numbers showed CRWD generated $1.3 billion in operating cash flow in the 12 months ended July 31.
That included $162.8 million of capital expenditure (or “capex”), leaving CrowdStrike with $1.2 billion of free cash flow. However, the firm has not returned capital to shareholders via dividends or share buybacks.
Looking over CRWD’s balance sheet, the company had $4.4 billion in cash as of July 31, with current assets totaling $5.9 billion.
Current liabilities added up to $2.7 billion, creating a 1.9 current ratio. That seems quite strong.
Also note that $2.4 billion of CrowdStrike’s current liabilities were in the form of unearned revenue, which isn’t a true financial obligation. If we adjust for this unearned revenue, the firm's current ratio as of July 31 would rise to 13.7 -- a truly jaw-dropping level as far as I’m concerned.
Meanwhile, the company’s total assets as of July 31 hit $7.2 billion, of which intangibles represented only about 13.3%.
Total liabilities less equity came to $4.3 billion, but that included $743 million in long-term debt that the firm could get rid of out of pocket if so desired. Another $745 million represented unearned credit.
CrowdStrike’s Technical Analysis
Here’s CrowdStrike’s chart going back roughly one year:
The chart shows a regression model of a trend that had been in place from January 2023 until CrowdStrike’s outage hit in July, which caused the stock to sell off.
July’s pullback took CRWD back to about $207.60 -- the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its entire January 2023-July 2024 rally.
Now, let's zoom in on the past six months:
This chart shows CrowdStrike’s Fibonacci models drawn up in teal, with regression models for the stock in blue and red.
On this time scale, readers will see that when CRWD rebounded from its early August low, the stock hit resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its January 2023-July 2024 move higher. However, CrowdStrike overcame that about two weeks ago.
The stock has also developed a second trend that fits neatly into a regression model.
CrowdStrike is heading into earnings trading above its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” denoted with a green line), 50-day Simple Moving Average (or “SMA,” marked with a blue line) and 200-day SMA (denoted with a red line). That’s not a bad place to be.
Additionally, the stock's Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) looks very strong, but not quite overbought.
CrowdStrike’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence (or “MACD,” marked with black and gold lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom) is leaning bullish as well.
The stock’s 12-day EMA (the black line) is above its 26-day EMA (the gold line) -- and both are above zero. So is the histogram of CrowdStrike’s 9-day EMA (denoted with blue bars).
For the purposes of trading CRWD going into and maybe out of earnings, all of the above created moving pivot at the current regression model’s upper trendline. That’s about $363 vs. the $357.55 that CrowdStrike closed at on Thursday.
But mind you, while breaking this level is the key to CrowdStrike seeing higher target prices, CRWD has also failed to break through this rising line five times since late August.
(Moomoo Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle was long CRWD and MSFT at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Moomoo is a financial information and trading app offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. In the U.S., investment products and services on Moomoo are offered by Moomoo Financial Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.
TradingView is an independent third party not affiliated with Moomoo Financial Inc., Moomoo Technologies Inc., or its affiliates. Moomoo Financial Inc. and its affiliates do not endorse, represent or warrant the completeness and accuracy of the data and information available on the TradingView platform and are not responsible for any services provided by the third-party platform.
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