Full crash and overshoot of the mean.

5 нояб. 2022 г.

As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while.

A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.

23 февр.

Заметка

Fair case to be made for this being a bit toppy now.

If this turns into a false breakout that might be the end of the rally.

2 мар.

Заметка

Starting to very seriously consider the short on this now.

I'm just cautious because ... well, the ATR is high.

I don't want to short and get spiked out in a final blow off.

But I certainly don't like the long side any more for a swing trade.

3 мар.

Заметка

I think 80 is a really good level for a potential top here but I don't think I can justify shorting something with this much vol while it's still 20% - 25% under the obvious resistance (Which I marked in on the original post at 8 as 100 - 110 and still think is the case).

Conceptually, I think it's a short.

Strategically, I can't short it under 100. I'd prefer to miss the trade than take the gap risk.

If I was wrong 80 but right about a downtrend, I'd expect a 20% gap. Don't want that risk.

But certainly not an advocate for being long this any more.

12 мар.

Заметка

Hmm. 90 hit.

Short is getting much more tempting.

12 мар.

Заметка

90 hit and it did it in that sketchy spike up move I was talking about being afraid of in the previous updates.

Maybe going to pull the trigger on this.