Comparing DASHBTC to ETHBTC for a DashUsd battleplan

23 авг. 2021 г.

Introduction
I have been a fan of the market structure on DASHUSD for a while now and I think it is poised to surprise a lot of people considering its fall in rankings on CoinmarketCap from the last bull market highs. In order to help me figure out where I should be exiting my DASHUSD/T trades I am going to be using the similarities I perceive in the DASHBTC chart when compared with the ETHBTC chart as they both seem very similar to me.

Key point is both charts have a lot of history that permit long term charting. A lot of the new up and coming coins don't have the amount of historical data and so it is harder to look for these relationships. Having the history permits me to have more confidence in where I want to take profit which is very useful as I don't want to be re-upping and re-longing my equity to close to the top. Very expensive mistake.

Analysis of Similarities

• Orange Zone Bear Market: as an area of consolidation for both trading pairs. The bottom of the zone acted primarily as support for DASHBTC in 2016 whereas it acted as resistance for ETHBTC. Conversely, the top of the zone acted as resistance for DASHBTC but once ETHBTC got above the zone it acted primarily as support. It was such good support that when ETHBTC dipped into the zone in late 2017 it set of a massive rally straight to the grey zone, which defined the bull trap for ETHBTC. That was a an over 400% move on the pair and coincides with ETHUSD going to its previous bull market all time high.
  
• Orange Zone Bull Market: ETHBTC has already completed its bear market and we see a massive and beautiful inverse head and shoulders that formed with the shoulders mostly within the orange zone and the head below the zone. ETHBTC had an abortive attempt to have the right shoulder perform around early February and price action stalled at the black trend line. The chart below shows about where I suspect Dash will be during that stall, and I do like that price target.
  
• Red Zone Bear Market: The red zone is where, quite frankly, price action fell off the cliff in Februarys of 2017. This is where the 13 and the 48 weekly EMAs crossed bearishly. Those time settings may seem odd, but a lot of research when into their use and can be read here: benzinga.com/trading-ideas/technicals/15/08/5764478/study-determines-the-best-moving-average-crossover-trading-st
• Red Zone Bull Market: ETHBTC stalled right here while BTCUSD and ETHUSD set all time highs. I would be quite happy to see DASHBTC stall in its redzone while DASHUSD sets an all time high. As my chart above shows, that will be around $4,500. It also seems that ETHBTC is forming a bull pennant right under the red zone and I suspect we will see it charge quick quickly to the gray zone.
  
• Grey Zone Bear Market: The gray zone is the body of the weekly candle at the BTC pair all time high. I suspect that may be a very likely place for price action to stall. We can't tell just yet what will happen because we don't have a lot of historical data. I am just emotionally preparing myself for a drastic stall but obviously what is happing on the USD pairs will be important, as well as what is happening in the traditional markets. We are still waiting to see how the gray zones will play out in the bull market.
  

*DASHUSD and my trades*
Hopefully this chart shows well enough my thinking on DASHUSD. I entered a x3 and a 10x trade on DASH last week and I will be using my x3 gains to keep my x10 trade alive if needed to have it reach its target on the DASHBTC chart. I have seen the structure needed for me to double up my x3 trade and feed my 10x trade a little bit.

I suspect DASHUSD might go sideways for 2-4 days until it finds support on the top of the channel that it used to consolidate from the upwards break of the rising wedge. If so I may add to my position.


Conclusion
THe main reason I battle plan is to settle any euphoria I may be feeling when a big move works in my favor. Things are looking good for the broader crypto market and I suspect that this bull market is going to last longer than a couple of months like some people are predicting. Prior to July monthly chart close I was quite bearish but BTCUSD and ETHUSD did what they had to do the last week of the month to show the trend was reversing. It seems that was basically our first sell off, or the 2 wave of an Elliot wave structure so I think we have quite a long way to go, timewise.

I am personally done watching BTCUSD as my crpyo bellwether. It's chart was significantly more bearish than ETHUSD based on chart patterns and a host of other indicators. I basically see ETHUSD currently similarly poised to its location in early 2017. Which means I think we are going to have a banger of a Elliot 3 wave a horrific 4 wave and a 5 wave for all the jonnie-come-latelies. Here is rough estimation of what I think the next year holds for ETH and therefor the broader crypto market. And of course, all the normal disclaimers apply. I am not a financial adviser or a CMT.