2024-06-11 - a daily price action after hour update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18600
bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower.
Invalidation is above 18600.
short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
dax
comment: Looking at the 1h chart, its a broad bear channel with lower highs and lower lows but the lows are 66 points Friday to Monday and 84 points from Monday to Tuesday.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18300 - 18600
bull case: Bulls are struggling to keep the market above the 1h 20ema but they make bears cover at lower lows. I do not have any opinion on tomorrows direction but if bulls interpret US CPI and FOMC as bullish, I can’t see dax staying down here. Bulls want to trade to the upper bear channel line before CPI and close the gap to today’s opening at 18545. R:R is on the bull side below 18400 since I don’t see bears starting to accelerate this selling unless we get a catalyst.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears keep on selling around 18500 and covering on new lows. Unless we get a bigger catalyst, dax won’t move much. Above 18000 everything is bullish and that’s why bears cover at new lows, they are scalping. Bears hope for some hot US CPI numbers and get the bigger second leg down to 1800 and lower.
Invalidation is above 18600.
short term: Bullish for gap close 18545 and I will be flat going into the news releases. So it has to happen early tomorrow.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Bear trend from the open and we had 8 consecutive bear bars on the 15m chart.
