2024-06-25 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow.
Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000.
Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish.
dax
comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350.
Invalidation is above 18440.
short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
overall market comment
Indexes - Pullbacks as expected. Markets are looking for the fair price and that’s why we get big down, big up. Slightly favoring the bulls to continue higher but just slightly. I wait for a breakout tomorrow.
Bitcoin had a bullish day but look at the daily chart. It’s a small bull inside bar. Bulls fighting for their life’s to stay above 60000. I expect bears to try again for 60k this week. It was also a perfect retest of the broken lower bear trend line around 62000.
Commodities pulled back again. Gold at the lows of this trading range and bears would need much bigger selling pressure to break it. Oil broke out of the bull channel and that is not good for the bulls. They now need to hold it above 80 or we will trade back down to 77.5ish.
dax
comment: Another day another doji after the US session. EU session closed 10 points below where it opened. Market also formed a perfect wedge and I expect this to break down to 18300 again. 18300 is currently my most important price for the dax and if bulls fail to defend, it’s night night for them.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls prevented a flush below 18200 today but the buying was weak at best. They need stronger bull bars and trade back above 18440. I don’t have many arguments for them tbh, because all time frames look pretty bearish or at least neutral (daily tf). Above 18450, we will see 18500+ again.
Invalidation is below 18250.
bear case: Bears sold off very strongly before the EU open and market struggled to get back up again. On the daily it’s a decent head & shoulders pattern, which would bring us right back to 17963 to the freaking tick. So the odds heavily favor the bears if the wedge breaks below 18350.
Invalidation is above 18440.
short term: Neutral between 18350-18450. Bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Shorting bar 24 one tick below bar 23. That was a perfect retest of the bull channel we broke out of yesterday and market then sold off for 183 points.
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