2024-07-01 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
dax
comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18632
bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low.
Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line.
short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
dax
comment: Funny thing for me is the fact that ath to June high is about 200 points, June to July high now is about 200 and low of the week was 200 points below that. Markets eh. 4h chart tells it the best I think. Market touched the big bear trend line from ath and was rejected heavily. Bulls have going for them that the higher lows getting higher and the trend lines steeper. Means we are forming multiple triangles, which confirms the obvious trading range. Breakout this week. Buckle. Up.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18400 - 18632
bull case: Bulls making higher lows but every high is sold big time. Only questions imo is, when will they give up? By not with every 1h bar it get’s more obvious that this bull trend is on it’s last legs and if you bought longer term above 18000, you are not happy with the bear trend line. Higher high above 18600 was unexpected somewhat but turned where it had to. Bulls need a strong daily close above 18600 to make bears nervous. I expect another try at 18600 tomorrow or Wednesday.
Invalidation is below 18400.
bear case: Bears trapped bulls buying above 18500 but the sell off afterwards was not deep enough to make a good bear case out of this. Bears need start making lower lows and closing the bull gap to 18400 with a bear bar closing on its low.
Invalidation is above 18632 or a 1h close above the bear trend line.
short term: Neutral but if bulls manage to get a 1h close above the bear trend line, it could go much higher much faster.
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Buy low, sell high and scalp. Best trade was shorting against the bear trend line 18600.
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