2024-06-24 - priceactiontds - daily update - dax
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
overall market comment
Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon.
Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold.
Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session.
dax
comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it.
Invalidation is below 18300.
bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally.
Invalidation is above 18540.
short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
overall market comment
Indexes - No good news for the stock indexes. Dax and DJI closed green but dax ended US session still below the daily ema. Dow was rejected at the 40k mark, which was to be expected. Bulls will probably try that again tomorrow. SP500 and Nasdaq pulled back some more and bears finally closed a bear bar at the lows. In the overall scheme of things it’s just a minor pullback from a climactic blow off top. I have zero confidence in the bears that they can prevent the bulls from retesting the highs soon.
Commodities were also uneventful. Oil bulls still doing their thing and keeping it in the bull channel, as I foretold in my weekly post. Gold printed a bull doji which keeps the market above the small bull support line on the daily chart but below the daily ema. More sideways price action expected for Gold.
Will do a Bitcoin update tomorrow morning. Want to see if they sell it again hard in the Asia session.
dax
comment: Bulls tried and failed at 18500 and US session closed below 18400. Not looking good for the bulls currently. Doji on the daily, so I expect more sideways price action tomorrow.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18600
bull case: Bulls traded above 18500 and the EU session closed above it. The US session pulled it back below 18400, so it’s fair to say that we will see more choppy price action tomorrow. Bulls are still favored to retest above 18500 tomorrow, where their fate will be decided. If they fail again, we will go back to 18000 and if they break above, 18600 comes fast. The bull channel is still valid but Globex could trade sideways out of it.
Invalidation is below 18300.
bear case: Bears kept the market around last weeks close in the US session and they want to test back down to 18300. I have no opinion if we see 18300 or 18500 first tomorrow but I do think we will hit both. 18300 is also a 50% pullback from this recent rally.
Invalidation is above 18540.
short term: Neutral between 18380-18450. Bearish below, bullish above
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024. —unchanged
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Globex was bullish since bar 4 and saw an acceleration on bar 22+23. 23 was your entry bar for longs. If you weren’t, bar 29 with the open was strong enough so buy one tick on the follow through bar 30. Bar 67 was a huge bear surprise. Was 66 a reasonable short entry? You can but you would have shorted in a bull trend right at the 1h 20ema. You can take it since bar 66 was a decent signal bar but certainly not a trade of the day.
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