US 30 Inverted H&S suggest completed first wave in Primary Cycle

23 авг. 2019 г.

Details in chart. The inverted Head & Shoulders is highlighted with cups, but you really can't miss the big red candles. Gonna get a huge bear flag from this, IMO.

Closed my shorts early, but never sorry to give the other guy the last dollar. Reactionary wave should appear within a few days rising from oversold condition.

IMO this rascal is gonna pop up hard from here and give us a hellacious bear market rally, following a washout low on Monday, shown by small arrow down, large arrow up.

Should rally until early September, when it again reaches overbought condition, provoking the next and larger down wave in a 5-wave Elliott impulsive negative trend.

The inverted H&S is crystal clear and strongly suggests we're in for a monster wave 2, like those power peaks we saw in November and December before the big break.

Credits to Hungry Hippo for a similar idea in which he better describes oversold and RSI, MFI, etc. Will NOT go straight down, folks!

Trade at your own risk, this isn't investment advice; GLTA!

26 авг. 2019 г.

Заметка

Waiting on confirmation of pivot, if we get supported here expect bounce to target upper resistance of 26660 - 28880 box, a 0.786 - 0.856 Fib retrace. Will be bully going into FOMC, again hoping for that 50 basis point rate cut. After his tantrum on Friday the Great Donald will likely generate more fake news to soothe the markets.

If support fails, it will sell pretty hard, R/R is poor, total 50-50 crapshoot atm.
I am sidelined all out atm, waiting to confirm either way. Straddle would be a good strat if contracts were fairly priced but the ^Vega has overpriced puts and calls, too expensive to play both sides now, you need to double one side just to break even. Better to sit out IMO.

27 авг. 2019 г.

Заметка

Waiting to see if she holds 257...

27 авг. 2019 г.

Заметка

Looks like it might hold above 257; I bought 5 DIA 257.5 Friday weeklies.

27 авг. 2019 г.

Заметка

Flipped the weeklies and rolled into QQQ Sep 185 puts. If support breaks it will cascade. Tariffs in force on Sunday.

28 авг. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

See related post on the flagpole. IMO we are headed lower now with imminent waterfall cascade selloff in the making. GLTA!

29 авг. 2019 г.

Заметка

Looks like it might break up after all. Who knew?!

4 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

Still has not tested upper TL yet, and may not ever. Appears to be a fake break, a news- and event-related rejection. Still could surprise us; be cautious!

I expected it could form cup & handles but appears to have been curtailed today; confirmation if heavy selling starts again this week. Bearish!

IMO we are in distribution phase; and public participation with capitulation may be very near.

5 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

Well it appears to be bulling on rumors and fake news after all. Trade talks in October just in time for a spooky Halloween disappointment; again. Could get a double top in September on buying these rumors and short squeeze.

If so, a pattern very similar to last year could unfold, on sell the news.

6 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

Do not think for a minute that the projection on this chart will be followed so closely on the next leg. I got lucky again; that's all. Forming a Cup & expect Handle soon. An EW wave pattern begins to emerge, looks like we could be in a third impulsive wave; the possibility for a Running Flat corrective B wave here exists if prices can push beyond the TL but then fall back. It's definitely a breakout from consolidation and could run pretty high, either to a double top or even a new ATH, shorting is real risky here, again (but shorting is always risky).

Admittedly this projection is a very happy coincidence, there have been a series of flash-bang news items that triggered this; but the market was coiled up waiting for any positive developments after so much bearish angst.

Proceed cautiously now in small positions as we approach what might be either a near-term pivot, or progress towards a double top; a retest of the ATH is quite likely, as most ATH do occur in September (Gann). IMO any pullback now is a buy opportunity, expect a fifth minor wave up yet and further price consolidation at the higher level.

After three gaps up, don't forget that every one of those gaps is begging to get filled, a correction as an intermediate wave 2 back to the August consolidation zone is quite possible and also likely before further price progress- chasing the Bull could be expensive. GLTA!

6 сент. 2019 г.

Заметка

Opening price at the 0.786 retracement from 23 July. Some pullback is likely. Doubt the big gaps will close immediately however.

8 сент. 2019 г.

Заметка

Market has faithfuly filled in this chart quite neatly. I'm not getting cocky just yet.

Do expect some pullback, but IMO a real chance for reaching a new ATH rather than rolling over right away is likely. I am seeing weakness in DJT + RUT, transports, materials, industrials and small caps are all lagging. FAANGs and SPY drive higher on wild speculation, while most of the market gets left behind.

Seems likely that foreign investment especially by Asian market speculators are rotating their positions out of FOREX into US Equities as flight to safety. This can't last... nothing is 'safe.'

Patience, caution are the watchwords to heed IMO.

11 сент. 2019 г.

Сделка активна

Looks like going to new ATH, probly eke out a nominal new high before throwover.

HOWEVER; we never know when the selling will start, so I entered tentative shorts today 9/11, as bear spreads. I collected the premium on the short puts and rolled to next series. Rejection from test of ATH will likely be fierce if Powell gives another inspiring chat like 31 July, LOL.