Using history to figure out where the bear is leading us.

20 дек. 2018 г.

Going back to my previous previous idea (I keep switching). So the very first one.

The whole world is collapsing!

There are two possibilities. The price will bounce eventually. Either:
* Price bounces then bull market resumes till 30.000 points Dow (and S&P 5000 3800-3900 points),
* Price bounces and then we enter in complacency.

So it should be ok to go long on stocks for a while once this crash is over. Plus january is usually a month when prices go up. Should be fine.

Let's see what could happen.
Here are a few examples of bear markets, 2019 could look like one of those:









Good "classic" ones:




A more complex one:


Soo.....



Here is what I personally believe will happen:


Can't tell how things will play out, can't tell how many capitulations there will be (;>), what I know for sure is:

- I can pinpoint some high probability bounce areas, for trading
- We will know more once the current selloff is over (and we move to complacency)
- Once there is a complacency of 6 months + it gets easy
- For investing, we can buy into capitulation if the prices are low enough, it does not matter if it goes lower later on.
- Active investing = awesome. Buy capitulation, sell some when it spikes, and hold some in, if the price goes lower, buy more, etc :) Each time it dumps buy take money out and use that money to buy more and more. Bagholders hate it, smart money loves it. MORE DISCOUNT!? Waou!

To know if the prices are cheap, just use the price to gdp, it is interesting to invest in the green area:

Here are a few other examples:






To end on a fun note...
These are really simple... just... Do not do something like this...

21 янв. 2019 г.

Заметка

I still think we going to 30k then crash.
I still am betting it is just going to repeat the usual thing it loves to do...

DJI 1962


DJI 1975


DJI 2008


DJI 2025 (or whatever)