Trump's demarche, Johnson's ultimatum and hurricane Delta

7 окт. 2020 г.

Financial markets on Tuesday lived exactly the same as on Monday: in the US – were waiting of stimulus, in the UK - a trade agreement, and the rest of the world continued to look at the numbers on the pandemic.

At the beginning of the day, there were no breakthroughs in any of the key topics. The Democrats continued to negotiate with the Republicans, creating the illusion of progress, which in fact does not exist.

But then traditionally Trump came and destroyed everything. We are talking about the withdrawal of the negotiators from the Republicans by his order. That is, exactly what we wrote about for a long time is happening - there will be no stimulus until the results of the Presidential elections. So, Trump goes all-in in an attempt to win back at least part of the gap with Biden (the gap is now more than 14% in Biden's favor).

Boris Johnson uses a similar “all in” tactic in negotiations with the EU. The British prime minister has essentially delivered an ultimatum to the EU: if there is no progress within the next two weeks, he will tell the British that a deal is impossible. The EU also decided to go "all in" and said that they did not plan to offer concessions.

As can be seen, every day it is more and more interesting to follow the news, although the end is already near, as time is running out.

So, the decline in the British pound and the US stock market yesterday is quite natural.

Meanwhile, another hurricane is approaching the United States (as if Trump is not enough for the United States). Since the letters of the English alphabet ended, they had to use Greek letters. And it has already come to Delta. Hurricane expectations are traditionally accompanied by shouts of "we are all going to die" and an increase in oil prices in anticipation of the collapse of oil production in the US (17% of US oil production is concentrated in the Gulf of Mexico). But once again we note that this is already the 26th (!) Hurricane this year for the United States and everyone is still alive. So, you shouldn't rely too much on Delta in this regard. This means that the growth of oil at the start of the week is a great opportunity for sells and nothing more.