Results of the crisis, earnings of giants and Trump initiatives

Yesterday was exceptionally rich in key macroeconomic statistics. In fact, it is now possible to sum up some intermediate results of the economic crisis caused by the pandemic. Germany's GDP in the second quarter fell by a record 11.7% (compared with the same period last year). The data came out slightly worse than expected. So, some weakness of the euro during the European session yesterday is understandable. Especially when you consider that the statistics on Eurozone GDP will be published today. The rate of decline will almost certainly exceed 10%. The whole question is how much.

But the main loser was the US economy. In the second quarter, it lost 32.9%. This is the maximum drop in the entire history of observations. And although a sharp recovery in economic activity is expected from the third quarter, it is already obvious that the economy will not return to the pre-crisis level in the nearest future. The situation with the pandemic in the world continues to remain as negative as possible.

In addition, when looking at the data on jobless claims, it becomes clear that the US economy continues to be in disgusting shape. Initial claims for unemployment benefits are above 1.4 million per week. As for continuous claims, they have grown significantly, exceeding the 17 million mark.

Given such a difficult situation on the labor market, if the Republicans and Democrats do not agree about stimulus act, the consequences for the US economy could be as negative as possible. And they, meanwhile, have not yet found a common language.
Donald Trump yesterday decided to finish off the already weakening dollar by voicing the idea of delaying the presidential election. And although this is generally unreasonable stuffing, many thought that there is no smoke without fire.

Yesterday was also important because the tech giants reported: Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Facebook. By and large, all of them, to one degree or another, are beneficiaries of the pandemic. This was confirmed by their strong quarterly data.