DogeUSD: playing out text book so far

30 мар.

Last week I was watching $0.12 area closely. If there was a break of this area, it could have meant a potential disaster for the holders. But just like magic, price bounced sharply from that area and made a new high, confirming a full 5 waves move to the upside. Price can go up more to hit some proper fib extensions to bolster the move, but at this point anything is a bonus. Next move to watch is the retrace. Depending on where price tops out, I would expect 0.618 fib retrace zone to hold. Worst case 0.5 fib retrace area since it is an intermediate degree wave 2 retrace. The correction could last a few weeks to a few months. I would not like price to revisit $0.10 are again, but it can happen with a deep retracement. Doge is volatile and news driven, so big price movements are not surprising. But, testing back at $0.16 - $0.17 would be a text book thing to do to confirm the breakout.

There is a longshot bearish case still lingering where the latest bull run could be a larger degree C wave. In that case, party is over friends and price is destined to go back sub $0.05. That is a long shot because a lot needs to go wrong for that scenario to play out and market as a whole need to collapse soon. For now, let's keep it in a back burner.