DXY Dollar Index : Tighten your seatbelt, airplane in space 9.5

9 мая 2022 г.

Simple, practical, efficient.
We are looking at the highest level since March 2020.
A very smart trader once told me - Buy low, sell high.
And looking at December 2016, March 2020 - Jackpot would have been hit both occasions with a short position, with 15% down for USD on average both times.

Now let's connect that to today.
What's similar? The level it self. 103.80-104.50 is the range both times the USD came down crashing, showing strong horizontal resistance in this 5 year window.
What else? Extreme stretched MACD showing overbought condition only similar to March 2020 and December 2016.
And? RSI 14 on weekly chart shows the most stretched overbought condition since 2015, when DXY came down from 100 to 91 within weeks.

Now let's look at the other possibility , a clear breakout higher than the horizontal resistance.
This would be a breakout of a very long-term consolidation , which would mean the beginning of a new up-trend that could take the USD to highs only seen before 22 years ago and before than the mid 80's.
Is this probable considering the extreme overbought condition across big and short timeframes?
Is this probable considering the highest national debt in history by far?
Is this probable considering the tech bubble burst?
Is this probable considering the worst inflation in 40 years?
Is this probable considering the rate hike is already priced in?
And the list goes on and on.

Make an informed decision, don't buy expensive.

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16 мая 2022 г.

Сделка активна

104.50 is holding!
DXY remains extremely overbought, on weekly resistance zone of 6+ years.

24 мая 2022 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

104.50 was confirmed to be triple top on a major horizontal level. Nice one!