ridethepig | Dollar Focus

5 мар. 2020 г.

Until this advanced coronavirus move was played, the flow had been relatively straight-forward, a smooth transition of the Titanic turning was more an ideal than reality. This corresponds to the process I have remarked on, that the US face a choice between a weaker USD or a weaker Equity market. The lack of restraint from Powell gives way to a mechanical swing towards the 74 handle.

So much for the strategic and theoretical manoeuvre when a full blown demand and supply shock storms into play. The practical value of the spike in USD makes things a lot easier to trade in US 2's 5's curve as you can see the recession is not a matter of if but when:

The Longer term flows here will carry us towards 50 over a 5 wave sequence, those who follow waves will know the technical target is now exposed:

Consumer Staples is showing signs of topping:

While Claims show signs of forming a floor:

Naturally it is all very well to aim for the 75 handle in DXY, driving buyers all the way back, but one must not go so far as to go overboard and intoxicate our strategic execution. As a whole, the defence is being carried out with insufficient knowledge as US virus numbers are only going to tick higher.

Now comes a breakthrough, Fed are funding the Whitehouse which logically comes from having a mandate to keep Equities higher. There is nowhere to hide, a really difficult environment to trade you will say. Excellent understanding of the macro flows and drivers in play are required.

Thanks as usual for keeping the likes and comments coming, jump into the comments with your charts and questions below!

14 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка