Steversteves

DXY: Monthly Outlook

Steversteves Обновлено   
TVC:DXY   Индекс доллара США
So I posted a DXY idea a little while ago on request and just looking back at it, the price target I had calculated actually came true and was surpassed.
Its interesting because I really have no business analyzing DXY. I am not at all familiar with this stock but it did motivate me to throw together a basic math model for it with Weekly and Monthly ranges.

So with that, I will offer some further, unsolicited insight. And let me caveat this again, I have no business with DXY because I don't trade it and am no pro with this particular index. So take this at face value.

So DXY has been in pretty much a year long uptrend, owning to the current economic and inflationary concerns that are omniprevalent on a global scale. You can see its current regression trend in the chart below:


These past 3 weeks it has jumped out of its regression trend only to get snapped back into it:


DXY bounced from its weekly calculcated low range and made the stretch out of the regression trend to touch its weekly high range (see chart above) where it closed the week.

DXY has yet to touch its monthly high range but it has already found support and bounced of its monthly low range:


DXY has consistently reached its monthly calculated high targets since its uptrend started at the beginning of the year:


We have yet to hit it this month so far. The first calculated target is 113$. We likely will surpass the first bull target and I suspect we should find resistance between the first and second bull target, likely hitting the second bull target:


Analysis, what I think will happen:

So its clear that we should be hitting the monthly high range. DXY respects these ranges really well and there is no reason to believe that its not going to reach it this month. I am positive we will hit the first bull target and surpass it a bit.

That said, because it tends to not like to be out of its regression trend for too long we anticipate this to pullback into its regression trend at some point this month, which is roughly a pullback below 112.40 at this point in time. However, as time passes, this target moves up further and further.

Technically speaking, DXY can jump all the way up to 115 and even surpass it, but I do suspect it to find resistance at the second bull target because that also aligns with the previous move:


Summary:
- Bullish Price targets for this month are:
1) 113
2) 114.47
3) 115.94

I anticipate target 1 and likely target 2.
Weekly range we will not know until we see DXY open on Monday, but if you want me to update with the weekly range and targets, let me know in the comments below.

That's it, trade safe everyone and have a great weekend!

Комментарий:
Per request, here are the DXY weekly targets. We have already hit the first bull target:


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