Dollar Index -16/03/2023-
• Today I am discussing the long term trend for the USD
• I went back in history (2014) to give you a quick study on the US Dollar's behavior throughout the years
• Back in 2014, the Dollar index rallied from the 80s level to the 100-105 as you can see the sharp up trend
• After that, correction started and bottomed as soon as we touched the 50% retracement level
• We then traded sideways between the peak and the 50-61.8% retracement level for few years
• In July 2021, the rally resumed and broke the previous swing highs and surged to levels around 115 ( same rally as the one back in 2014-2015 )
• The greenback reached the top in October 2022 and retraced back to the 50% level.
• If the history were to repeat itself, we will be trading somewhere between the recent swing high and the 50-61.8% retracement level before breaking up again.
• The other scenario is breaking down below the highlighted support area which is very critical in this scenario and going back to lower levels ( below 100 )
• Given all the uncertainties in the market currently, the bullish scenario is more favorable, given the safe haven attribute the US Dollar has, and this doesn't seem to change in the near term.
• I went back in history (2014) to give you a quick study on the US Dollar's behavior throughout the years
• Back in 2014, the Dollar index rallied from the 80s level to the 100-105 as you can see the sharp up trend
• After that, correction started and bottomed as soon as we touched the 50% retracement level
• We then traded sideways between the peak and the 50-61.8% retracement level for few years
• In July 2021, the rally resumed and broke the previous swing highs and surged to levels around 115 ( same rally as the one back in 2014-2015 )
• The greenback reached the top in October 2022 and retraced back to the 50% level.
• If the history were to repeat itself, we will be trading somewhere between the recent swing high and the 50-61.8% retracement level before breaking up again.
• The other scenario is breaking down below the highlighted support area which is very critical in this scenario and going back to lower levels ( below 100 )
• Given all the uncertainties in the market currently, the bullish scenario is more favorable, given the safe haven attribute the US Dollar has, and this doesn't seem to change in the near term.
Ramzi Abou Abdallah, CFTe, CMT
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