DXY Update Daily TF October 26

26 окт. 2022 г.

The DXY has been selling off on hopes that central banks are nearing the end of this interest-rate raising campaign that started earlier this year.

Things to note:
- Bearish cross of 9 below 21EMA
- 50 broke as support
- Major support @ 100EMA & LT support TL @ $108

The following notes in-no-way suggest that history will repeat, but they are interesting nonetheless:
- Last time RSI was @ this level was May 30th & Aug 11th
- BTC set major peaks on May 31 & Aug 15th
- ETH set major peaks on May 31 & Aug 14th
- SPY set major peaks on June 2nd & Aug 16th
- QQQ set major peaks on June 2nd & Aug 16th
(See asset charts for reference once I post them)

On the 4HR TF:
- RSI is very OS, the last time was Oct 4, which coincides with a significant peak on the SPY & QQQ, and a less significant peak on BTC & ETH

Like I said, this does NOT mean history will repeat, but it is interesting to note.

Now am I saying that stocks & cryptos are setting MAJOR highs? Not necessarily, but I think we have one more sell-off to go to mark the bottom.

In order to get that bottom, we will need to see a topping structure play out on the DXY (ASSUMING IT'S PEAKING), so here's what I think could play out over the next few weeks:
- DXY dumps down to the 100EMA & LT support TL @ 108ish
- Finds support at that level & bounces up to create a LOWER HIGH
- IF we get the LOWER HIGH, we then look for confirmation of a bottom in stocks & cryptos
- IF we get a HIGHER HIGH then it's back to the drawing board, although we could still get a higher high in price and a lower high on the RSI, creating a BEARISH divergence.

The main takeaway here is that we need to be alert and watch this market closely over the coming weeks to scoop up the opportunities that could be close.