U.S Dollar Seasonal Pullback

11 нояб. 2022 г.

DXY

U.S Dollar Index marked on the weekly chart

The U.S Dollar has been on a tear the past year, almost breaking old highs from 2001. However, DXY has chosen to respect its historical seasonality with the pullback in recent weeks which I believe will continue further before ultimately re-aligning with the longer term bullish narrative.

Confluences

• Seasonality: Dollar tends to begin a downtrend in the second half of November.
  
• Respected Monthly bearish order block at ~114.00. This is an area prior to the large bear trend formed in 2001.
  
• Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the swing low at ~110.00.
  
• Most recent weekly candle disrespected a weekly imbalance by closing through it with enormous force (i.e support broken)
  
• Bullish order block with its mean threshold within an imbalance resides below.
  
• Lots of liquidity resting above the imbalance and order block, ripe for the taking.
  

Not long ago I would have expected Dollar to zoom past 120.00, but recent price behavior has shown that a cooling off is at play. The time for Dollar all-time highs will come, but for now I am bearish.

Dollar historical seasonality details: https://charts.equityclock.com/us-dollar-index-futures-seasonal-chart

23 янв. 2023 г.

Сделка закрыта: достигнута тейк-профит цена

DXY has reached my main target. It honestly looks like it's interested in 100