ES/SPY Weekend Look (Nov22-26)
Here is the weekend look for Nov 22-26. Last week price eventually moved through the previous week's high and tapped the bottom of the upside target zone and pulled back a bit. The move was made on strength in AAPL, AMZN and MSFT as well as other large cap names. The breath of the market was interestingly weak. The divergence between small caps and large caps was extremely wide and the new high was made with less than 50% of SPX stocks trading above their respective 20 SMAs.
Going into this week price sits just below the higher time frame 1.618 inversion measurement(red arrow). This is significant level for me. More often then not price reacts to this level. Of course anything can happen and staying long in this market has paid off more often then not. With the shortened Thanksgiving week I would expect some sideways price action. Although I have been expecting a period of sideways down price movement for a while only to see the ES/SPY and NAS make new highs day after day. This week is historically strong more than 70% of the time.
My focus will be on the mega caps again. If AAPL and AMZN continue their explosive moves look for higher highs. TSLA is also on watch as it as recovered momentum and it trading above the Neutral in the premarket.
Weekly notes
Powell has been reinstated.
Wed... New home sales, Jobless claims, GDP, PCE price index.
Thur... Thanksgiving
Fri... Shortened trading day (1pm est close)
Bullish Note.
Powell remains
Infrastructure bill signed
BBB passed congress
Seasonaly strong period for stocks
Political pressure favours low rates through mid term elections
Bearish notes:
Extended price action.
Weakening market breadth
Covid now back in the news cycle
Rising 10year yield.
Going into this week price sits just below the higher time frame 1.618 inversion measurement(red arrow). This is significant level for me. More often then not price reacts to this level. Of course anything can happen and staying long in this market has paid off more often then not. With the shortened Thanksgiving week I would expect some sideways price action. Although I have been expecting a period of sideways down price movement for a while only to see the ES/SPY and NAS make new highs day after day. This week is historically strong more than 70% of the time.
My focus will be on the mega caps again. If AAPL and AMZN continue their explosive moves look for higher highs. TSLA is also on watch as it as recovered momentum and it trading above the Neutral in the premarket.
Weekly notes
Powell has been reinstated.
Wed... New home sales, Jobless claims, GDP, PCE price index.
Thur... Thanksgiving
Fri... Shortened trading day (1pm est close)
Bullish Note.
Powell remains
Infrastructure bill signed
BBB passed congress
Seasonaly strong period for stocks
Political pressure favours low rates through mid term elections
Bearish notes:
Extended price action.
Weakening market breadth
Covid now back in the news cycle
Rising 10year yield.
Комментарий:
Bearish notes from above starting to come into play. Yield and breadth pulling the market back an now new covid fears pressuring the futures. Price has rejected for the 1.618 fib and last week's high and has now breached last week's low. Minor support at the green box then bigger support at the top of the neutral. Thin market volume tomorrow could lead to an outsized move.
