SUMMARY
ECONOMIC EVENTS
EARNINGS
BULLISH NOTES
BEARISH NOTES
- ES finished the week with a gain of 0.76 % after trading in a range of 118 pts.
- ES fell below the Aug 16th High
- ES is now trading below the 9/21/55 emas
- First support is now the 236 Fib RT
- Price is still above th 618 Fib and the Feb 2nd high
- Sectors finished mixed with XLK & XLY leading and XLE pulling back. However XLE still showing near term relative strength.
- Catalyst for continued sell off is rising bond yields.
- Still in a seasonally weak period of the year.
- Long term bias remains bullish but deeper pull back to the lower trendline is now posible.
- Watching 10 yields as they test the 2008 high at 4.27.
- Earning seasons finishes up with reports from CRM, CRWN, LULU and NIO.
- Non Farm Payrolls due out this week on Friday
- New month starts Friday
ECONOMIC EVENTS
- MON Fed's Barr speaks
- TUES US CB Consumer Confidence, US JOLTS Job Openings & Fed's Barr speaks
- WED US ADP Employment Change, US GDP & EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- THUR US PCE, US Jobless Claims & Fed's Collins speaks
- FRI US Employment Rate, Non Farm Payrolls, CAD GDP, US S&P Manufacturing & Fed's Mester speaks
EARNINGS
- MON Nothing notable
- TUES BBY, BMO, BNS, BOX, HPE, NIO, SJM
- WED CRM, CRWD, OKTA, PSTG, VEEV
- THUR CIEN, CM, CPB, DG, ESTG, LULU
- FRI Nothing notable
BULLISH NOTES
- ES starts the week above 236 Fib / 100 SMA support
- Potential bounce off Feb 2nd high and lower trendline
- ES remains in the long term bull zone. Above high time frame 618 Fib RT.
- Longer term uptrend remains in place if price does not pull back below the 50% Fib RT
- Potential postive reaction to NFP
- Potential drop in bond yields
BEARISH NOTES
- Price rejected at HTF 786 Fib resistance
- ES now below the Aug 16th high
- ES dropped below the 9, 21 & 55 emas.
- Potential negative reaction to NFP
- Retest of Feb 2nd high is likely
- Deeper pull back to lower trendline is possible
- A move below the Feb 2nd high would drop price out of the longer term bull zone.
- Seasonally weak period for stocks.
- Potential yield move back above 4.27%.
- VIX rising
Комментарий:
$ES_F trading in similar fashion to the $NQ_F. Started the week consolidated between the 55/21 emas. Price has now broken above the 21 ema and the Aug 16 high which is bullish. First upside target is last Thursday's high. A break above Thursday's high would negate the H&S pattern everyone is watching and could lead to push back to the 4600 level.
Комментарий:
Here's a look at the H&D on the daily. So bullish above last Thursday's high, but bearish if price rejects. A rejection could take price back down to the neckline of the pattern and lead to a deep pullback. Above Thursday's high a move back to 4600 is possible.
Комментарий:
$ES_F pushed through last Thursday's high easily and is now above 4500. I will remain bullish above 4500. Close today will be key as it is the last day of Aug going into the long weekend. A reversal below the 4500 again would signal a potential move back to the 21 ema.