S&P500: Let's call the top!
Stock and Crypto market update: let's have a look at how much gas is left in the tank for these markets! Long term; a lot for both but let's dive deeper into the short and mid term perspectives... (sorry if this chart may seem messy but its actually full of interesting information, zoom in to have an clearer local view)
Market Sentiment
At this very moment, the crypto and stock market are in a rebound coming from bearish lows a few weeks ago. The S&P500 just banged out a new ATH while the crypto market performs mixed and choppy... For the immediate short term this will stay this way; with the stock market leading the race and crypto staying neutral / bearish - short term pumps aside. However, in both markets investors have a low risk attitude with tight stops and willingness to exit at any time...
S&P500: the top?
For the S&P500 we are relatively close to the top and at the last impulse of our wave count. We already surpassed the buying climax and have bearish divergences on the weekly timeframe and lower. With today's good news on the EU monetary policy (support packages stay in place and interest rates remain unchanged) and the new ATH; the short term outlook is that we can and will gear towards new highs. When we look longer term, we can see the S&P trading inside a big rising wedge and price action behaves very similar to the previous rising wedge starting from March lows. When I connect the impulse waves (1 to 5) with the MACD, (stochastic) RSI and the FIB extensions + retracements, I conclude the following behavior:
Impulse 1 & 2
- 0.618 / 0.5: high volume impulse with sideways consolidation around the highs (bullish)
Impulse 3 & 4
- 0.786 / 0.618: medium volume impulse with a (small) ABC correction forming a double bottom around the highs (first bearish signs)
Impulse 5
- 1: low volume impulse with a (bigger) ABC correction with an inverted V shape B and C wave (bearish)
Conclusion
So we can see that all these characteristics line up with the current impulses inside the current rising wedge. So if history is any indication; my projection for the S&P500 (2021) top would be around the 4386 to 4400 level. A more bullish scenario could even bring us between 4500 and 4800 levels although I do not find that very realistic. If we do make it those levels though; we can be quite certain a decent and healthy correction is coming.
For the crypto markets it means we have some room to play when it comes to a market wide correction; however I do not see great buys in crypto just yet. Crypto is still in uncertainty and in an unhealthy situation before we've seen the last correction impulse. We might(!) be gearing towards new monthly highs until the end of June to punish the half yearly futures expiration - to potentially see the last and most destructive correction impulse after. For both markets it's the same story though; when we see interest rates go up (which will eventually happen) we will have gas till the top. Let's catch it!
Market Sentiment
At this very moment, the crypto and stock market are in a rebound coming from bearish lows a few weeks ago. The S&P500 just banged out a new ATH while the crypto market performs mixed and choppy... For the immediate short term this will stay this way; with the stock market leading the race and crypto staying neutral / bearish - short term pumps aside. However, in both markets investors have a low risk attitude with tight stops and willingness to exit at any time...
S&P500: the top?
For the S&P500 we are relatively close to the top and at the last impulse of our wave count. We already surpassed the buying climax and have bearish divergences on the weekly timeframe and lower. With today's good news on the EU monetary policy (support packages stay in place and interest rates remain unchanged) and the new ATH; the short term outlook is that we can and will gear towards new highs. When we look longer term, we can see the S&P trading inside a big rising wedge and price action behaves very similar to the previous rising wedge starting from March lows. When I connect the impulse waves (1 to 5) with the MACD, (stochastic) RSI and the FIB extensions + retracements, I conclude the following behavior:
Impulse 1 & 2
- 0.618 / 0.5: high volume impulse with sideways consolidation around the highs (bullish)
Impulse 3 & 4
- 0.786 / 0.618: medium volume impulse with a (small) ABC correction forming a double bottom around the highs (first bearish signs)
Impulse 5
- 1: low volume impulse with a (bigger) ABC correction with an inverted V shape B and C wave (bearish)
Conclusion
So we can see that all these characteristics line up with the current impulses inside the current rising wedge. So if history is any indication; my projection for the S&P500 (2021) top would be around the 4386 to 4400 level. A more bullish scenario could even bring us between 4500 and 4800 levels although I do not find that very realistic. If we do make it those levels though; we can be quite certain a decent and healthy correction is coming.
For the crypto markets it means we have some room to play when it comes to a market wide correction; however I do not see great buys in crypto just yet. Crypto is still in uncertainty and in an unhealthy situation before we've seen the last correction impulse. We might(!) be gearing towards new monthly highs until the end of June to punish the half yearly futures expiration - to potentially see the last and most destructive correction impulse after. For both markets it's the same story though; when we see interest rates go up (which will eventually happen) we will have gas till the top. Let's catch it!
Комментарий:
Top of the box: 70%. Did we call the top?
Important update on Twitter on 10x Club, a weekly newsletter curated by me containing research & analytics on the crypto market & the amazing opportunities during the bear market - Check my Twitter or website link below:
S&P500: tops at 4384,50 (for now!) Lets see if this is the real top or just another dip. RSI tops exaaactly at the point I drew. Its summer, profit taking time and September might be very bearish... Lets wait and see...