ES Weekly Outlook (Aug 25–29) - Setup and Analyses for 08/25

TL;DR: Biggest volatility magnets land mid-to-late week (NVDA Wed PM, GDP/Claims Thu, PCE Fri). For Monday, first decision is the 6492–6496 overhead band. Acceptance above = continuation; rejection = range rotation lower.

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Key Levels (current structure)
Resistance (sell zones)
• R3: 6512–6515 (stretch)
• R2: 6505
• R1: 6492–6496 ← primary decision zone

Support (buy zones)
• S1: 6482–6487 ← intraday shelf
• S2: 6473–6475 ← prior NY swing low
• S3: 6442–6443
• S4: 6429
• S5: 6411
• S6: 6402
• S7: 6370–6375 ← deeper demand

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Monday 8/25 – Scenario Map

Bullish Continuation
• Trigger: 5-minute close & hold above 6492–6496 (no quick reclaim).
• Path: 6505 → 6512/6515; allow for momentum extension if Tuesday’s data are benign.
• Invalidate: Fast reclaim below 6487 after breakout.

Range → Fade
• Trigger: Clear rejection at 6492–6496 (seller response + lower high on 5-minute).
• Path: 6482–6484 → 6473–6475; loss of 6473 opens 6443 → 6429.
• Invalidate: Reclaim/hold > 6490 on a 5-minute close.

Timing note (Mon): Morning housing print around 10:00 ET can nudge yields/ES; treat the first spike cautiously.

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Week at a Glance (ET)

Mon 8/25
• 10:00 – New Home Sales (Jul)

Tue 8/26
• 8:30 – Durable Goods (Jul, advance)
• 9:00 – S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Prices (Jun)
• 10:00 – Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Aug)

Wed 8/27
• 1:00 – U.S. 5-Year Note Auction
• 5:00 pm – NVIDIA (NVDA) earnings (key AI/mega-cap impulse)

Thu 8/28
• 8:30 – GDP (Q2, 2nd est.)
• 8:30 – Initial Jobless Claims
• 10:00 – Pending Home Sales (Jul)
• 1:00 – U.S. 7-Year Note Auction

Fri 8/29
• 8:30 – PCE & Core PCE (Jul)
• 9:45 – Chicago PMI (Aug)
• 10:00 – Univ. of Michigan Sentiment (Final, Aug)

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Playbook & Risk (how I’ll trade it)
• Wait for the first confirming 5-minute close at the trigger; no entries on wicks.
• Shorts: 5-minute confirmation is enough unless flipping a firmly bullish 15-minute trend (then require the 15-minute validation to size up).
• Management: Time-stop 15–20 min without progress; max 2 attempts per idea.
• Windows: Prefer NY AM (9:45–11:30 ET) and PM (13:30–15:30 ET). Avoid fresh risk ±3–5 min around scheduled releases.
• Into big events: Stay lighter into NVDA (Wed PM) and PCE (Fri AM); let the print set the tone.

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What I’m Watching
• Rates path after Powell → if inflation cools, dips likely get bought; a hot PCE flips that.
• Auction tones (Wed/Thu 1:00) → quick yield swings can drive intraday ES rotations.
• Breadth & leaders → if AI/mega-cap strength broadens, upside extends; if leadership narrows into NVDA, expect chop.