Key Daily Levels, ES SP-500 Futures March 22

22 мар.

Context and Summary



The big move on Wednesday continued through into Thursday’s NY open, expanding further to Wednesday 1.414 fib expansion, 5322.50. The market hovered slowing advancing for another re-test of those highs, but after a failure to break IB high, the books quickly reverse and sellers stepped in to bring price down to the pre-market lows, with some intraday buyers showing a lack of conviction to hold.

The main thing to watch today is whether the market will pull back into Wednesday’s range, where there remains a lot of large gaps. There’s a big gap down to 5298, and the prior week highs are all the way down to 5257.


Overnight, UK Retail Sales numbers were released at 03h00 ET and that gave a big bump to the UK100 and SP500 ( ES1! ), pushing price back up to the 0.50 level of the New York session trading range, 5211. The sales data show no significant change or declines in sales volume, which was a positive for retail sales companies. This was market by a very swift squeeze of short sellers which came into the market since the late Thursday afternoon.

Keep an eye on U.S. retail stocks at the open to see if they have follow through.

Global equities in Asia were weak, with Japan and China both retreating. This pulled down the appetite for risk assets GC BTC and SIL. CL is about flat today.



What to expect today?

For ES, the key levels to watch today will be the point of control, or the high volume nodes for Thursdays trading. It’s like price revisits liquidity at those levels, but if the selling continues, then 5311.25 (0.50 of prior day RTH) or 5316.00 (0.71) will become very strong selling walls.

If the buyers continue to hold the floor, 5299 to 5301, and we see an inside day, then possibly look for a sweep back up to 5320.00. If the buyers retreat and take profits, a bigger pullback may be likely given that the pop from Wednesday’s FOMC Interest Rate decision pushed price above 5297 and the market has not come back inside Wednesday’s range.

Above, look for a final exhaustion level of about 5228 or 5332, which is just above the 1.618 expansion of the weekly range from March 4-8th. This is also about 1.272 expansion of Thursday’s range.





Levels
5328 1.272 Prior Day RTH Expansion
5318 1.618 2-week range expansion
5332 1.414 expansion prior day RTH
5294.00 1.272 Prior Day RTH Expansion
5290 0.118 Wednesday RTH Retracement

5286 1.618 Prior Day RTH Expansion

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