Week ahead – GDP, CPI & Unemployment

15 февр. 2021 г.

This week ahead, we have a plethora of data coming out across the world dictating the strength of “main street” and its contribution to the Coronavirus Pandemic’s global recovery.

With that said, the Coronavirus continues to present itself as a factor pulling back the global economy’s growth. With financial markers such as Brent Crude and WTI prices returning to pre-pandemic levels, evidence of life post Coronavirus slowing down is coming into sight. However, as shown, even the countries who handled the Coronavirus well indicate that we still have to grapple with the strengthening strains.

Case in point – I am currently writing this at home, as New Zealand, renowned for their Coronavirus Response, has placed their largest city, Auckland, back into a level 3 lockdown following three community transmission cases from the stronger UK Strain.

However, as we all know, financial markets do not sleep. Here is your week ahead.

Sunday, 14th Feb – Japan’s GDP Figures Quarter over Quarter
Japan has not had the best success regarding the fight against the Coronavirus. Initially praised for their no lockdown strategy, dependent on the mask-wearing, cleanliness culture Japanese citizens exhibit. Three waves of the Coronavirus later, each larger than the previous, and the Japanese Government depend on the vaccine to help save their citizens from further infections.

However, the Japanese economy is showing its strength, and analysts predict they may come out of the pandemic stronger than expected. Unemployment has stayed at a modest 2.9% due to Bank of Japan’s corporate lending scheme, alongside bankruptcies falling by around 20% from a year earlier in recent months. Analysts predict GDP growth of 10.1% in the last quarter of 2020.

Tuesday. 16th Feb – Eurozone’s GDP Quarter over Quarter and Year over Year
Last year today, the Coronavirus had started to hit the shores of many countries. A couple of months later, most of the Eurozone would have concluded that their lockdowns were adequate in eliminating most of the virus and that citizens may freely roam around Europe for the summer.

That decision would cost them many more lives and setback the road to recovery.

It is now 2021, and we’re approaching the same period in which these decisions were made. However, now, Europe has been slowly rolling out the Coronavirus vaccine to citizens. However, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has stated that the EU was late to rollout and authorize Coronavirus vaccines and are “still not where we want to be.” However, a better than expected GDP print may mean stronger Euro, which may be detrimental to exports.



Wednesday, 17th Feb – United Kingdom’s CPI Figures
With the United Kingdom slowly getting a grasp on the Coronavirus with the help of a vaccine, the new strain provides new challenges as British scientists state the U.K Coronavirus strain is “likely” 30% to 70% deadlier than the original. With that said. Boris Johnson is Optimistic that the Coronavirus Lockdown can be eased soon – however, as history shows, lockdown is only effective if there has not been community transmission for weeks. Analysts predict CPI to drop slightly to 0.5% from 0.6% year over year.



Wednesday, 17th Feb – U.S Retail Sales
Like the United Kingdom, the United States has been given a tailwind in the form of a vaccine. However, similar to the United Kingdom and Europe, the vaccine’s distribution infrastructure has been criticized. With the U.S having many months to prepare for the eventuality of a vaccine. Cases are down from their all-time highs, although still above 100,000 for their daily average. Analysts predict U.S Retail Sales to rise to 0.7% this week ahead, up from -0.7% a month before.

Thursday, 18th & Friday, 19th Feb – Australia’s Unemployment Rate for Jan and Retail Sales Month over Month.
Australia has recovered from a devastating 2nd wave by introducing a drastic lockdown near the middle of 2020. However, there have been many flare-ups around Australia, with one in Sydney and one currently in Melbourne, which has caused the local Government to implement a short lockdown. However, there has been evidence over the past couple of months of Australians using the money they have saved during the past lockdowns and spending it. With that said, analysts predict a slight fall in the unemployment rate to 6.5% from 6.6 in January, with retail sales expected to bounce to 2% from a negative 4.1%.

Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and stay safe.