ETHBTC possible long in troubled times

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I'm wondering about getting into ETHBTC. I think we will drop down a lot more on BTC and ETHBTC should benefit. I also think there will be a rebound on BTC, this would send the ETHBTC price back down but a well timed exit would make for a good trade.

The orange projection is simply a copy and paste from the Feb 2016 bull run - it's not gospel in anyway, but could give a rough idea of the course, if the events surrounding BTC (which I describe above) come to pass.

The Fibonacci times are just guesses at best. The MAs are converging slightly instead of diverging slightly as they were back in this time 2016 so that makes me a little anxious.

What do you think? Worth it or too risky?
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Risky to long anything now. Market is extremely bearish.
Chart PatternsETHBTCTrend Analysis

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