Ethereum (Final Update)

20 апр. 2016 г.

This will be the final update for a while. I will be having my wedding, graduation and travelling for half a year+. I will be too busy to trade.

For people who do not really understand what's going on, this is the short version:
Correction at (X), downtrend resumes (A), trap (B), real move to .01

(There's a limit to my description? See comment for the longer version)

Present time:
From here I think we will go and touch the B-B trendline. The true trendline. The ATH trendline is not of any importance. But the true trendline in a double or triple combination is the B to B line. If this gets broken, then we could be starting a new trend. However, if it bounces off the trendline, then .01 is to be expected.
The path up will be corrective in nature. It should however, finish with a 5-wave impulse.
Bonus: a possible divergence? My first attempt at spotting one

Thanks for reading. Good luck.

20 апр. 2016 г.

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Longer version:
(Click and press play)

(If I must say so, this chart is incredible. The labels are clearly wrong, but the idea is there.)
(Y) to A:
From the lows at .0165, we got a double zigzag to A. I've always expected this to be corrective in nature due the whole move being only a double zigzag instead of a triple like Bitcoin and other coins in the past. The double felt too short finishing at (Y). The move up initially looks like an impulsive wave. Double zigzags imitate impulsive quite often. I've charted it a few times and could not find an easy impulsive 5 wave. Furthermore, the characteristic of double or triple zigzags is that they channel very well. I found that to be the case here. Many people mistaken this for wave 1. It is not.
A to B:
A simple zigzag
B to (A):
This ending diagonal is quite important and provides many details. Firstly, it confirms that this is a correction. It is the only 5-wave we've gotten so far and ending diagonals are often part of C-waves. Combined with A + B + 5, we got a 3-3-5 making up (A), which in itself, is 3.
(A) to (B):
This is a double flat (or triple). The labels are a little messy, but it forms the (B) for the zigzag towards (X).
(B) to (X):
Now that we've gotten a (3) + (3), we need to finish it off with an impulsive (5). The 5th wave was extended in this and then truncated at v. This is exactly 138.2% of wave (A) It typically is between 138.2% and 161.8%. In real time, it was difficult to know if this was an (X) completed, but it was close.
(X) to (A):
The downtrend here was not impulsive, which was quite confusing. It was corrective in nature. I expected a 5 wave impulsive down after (X). It wasn't until today everything made sense. After (X), there was wave (A) and (B) to go (purple). Also to note, the previous (X)'s time matches the completion of this (X), another confirmation the correction is done (reference: tradingview.com/x/yqCkGOkQ/). As we started approaching (A), something felt wrong, A bounce was expected at the 61.8% but did not happen. The 61.8% signals the end impulsive for (X). This was when I closed my shorts expecting a bounce. And what a bounce it was.
(A) to (B):
It was entirely possible for the impulsive to go on for a very long time and be a complete reversal of the trend. But falling back at the 61.8% confirms the uptrend is over. The A retraced to 23.6%(76.4%) fib line. After looking at the 1 minute candle for a very long time, I came to the conclusion it could not be impulsive. There was overlap between 2 and 4 no matter how I charted it. This was significant as an impulse wave there could change the structure. In addition, the difference between a elongated zigzag or impulsive is retracement.. After touching the 61.8%, it can be confirmed this was developing a wave (B) flat.
(B) to (A)-purple:
What caught me off-guard was the sudden finish of 3. It finished with an ending diagonal which is only typical of 5th waves. This led me to believe (B)-purple was about to start. It appears the 3rd wave's 5th wave was extended. The 5 is also between 138.2% to 161.8% once again. This whole B-purple structure is complete with a 3-3-5.

20 апр. 2016 г.

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FAQ:
Q: What happens if there is good news? Have you heard about the development of xxx or yyy?
A: This information is typically priced in. Elliott waves is based on TA and does not take into account of FA.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin moons (or dooms)?
A: Similar to above. The market will move where it wants to move, anything else is just an excuse.
Q: BuyBitcoins is it your birthday? - defnotLegIon
A: Depends when you are reading this. Chances are it is not.
Q: BuyBitcoins for which markets will "Sell in May, go away" be a good decision? - defnotLegIon
A: I believe Eth would be a good sell in May.