comprehensive analysis

4 июл. 2018 г.

1) Trend analysis
We have the descending channel of the downtrend
We had the rising channel of the swing high
And we've just established a new base channel

2)Support and resistance
We have tested 480 twice and failed both time, it's the LAST resistance on our way out of the downtrend
We have confirmed 450 as a support, if this level break... Well...

3) Candle patterns
On the first break out attempt, we have a shooting star , visible on H4
On the second a hanging man , visible on H1
And on the daily we are seeing an evening star .
The weekly is showing bullish signs, with a potential, morning star (daily)

4) Indicators
If we look at BTC 2.76% , there was a higher high, but RSI made a lower high, this is a negative sign
ETH didn't make a new high at all, so RSI means nothing here
Macd has been failing to break higher since the first move up, as the arrow point
CMF 0.14% is more positive, on H4 it's been rising since yesterday low

5) Elliott Waves
An easy EW count is the one on this chart BUT i don't like how MACD fell short of making a new high (and confirming this as a wave 3)
A bullish alternative would be 3=i and 4=ii, we went down to fib 0.236 yesterday and that would work better with the indicators
A bearish count would see 1 through 3 as a leading diagonal
An even more bearish count would see it as an ABC

5) Demark Trendlines
I only had upside target up to now, near 520
But i'm starting to have targets to the downside
Break out targets in orange

6) Patterns
Besides the inverted head and shoulders taht everyone must be talking about, all of the above hint to me to think of a triangle
Watch RSI for it's confirmation, it should oscillate within those lines

Conclusion :
To remain bullish I would like to see a triangle (that would confirm the wave 3 theory)
Or a breakout on the next daily candle, that would invalidate the bearish sign (and confirm this as a wave I & ii theory

4 июл. 2018 г.

Заметка

if this keeps playing out as a triangle... just an idea tho

5 июл. 2018 г.

Заметка

this guy that poked through the support is a bit of game changer, now price reached fib 0.3 of both moves.
We could now be doing a shallower version of that triangle.
We'll know if we touch the top instead of turning south at the orange target.

5 июл. 2018 г.

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Well, his triangle is turning into a ugly little duckling :)

Few things to be warry of :
1) wave D could turn into a larger D'
2) wave E probably won't touch my previous orange target (even E' wouldn't)
3)I wouldn't be surprise if a quick candle were to overshoot everything and make a quick double bottom touch down, and that's like 2% (well 1.76%) below target, so trade carefully
4) This one is an advice : check on RSI or macd popping out of there own triangle, it usually anticipate what the price does and doesn't fakeout as easily

5 июл. 2018 г.

Заметка

Price touched my B' and E target, I could say "i told you so"
But that was random and didn't match my analysis.

We made a larger wave B, that i was considering. But the E went way too.
Therefore i have to adjust that count.



RSI and MACD are showing signs of double bottom (dotted arrow)
A break above the black horizontal line would be confirmation of that scenario

If price reach my orange target around then, expect the "triangle" to be competed and the uptrend to resume.

If it fails, then we might have one last wave down (a real E this time hopefully)

In conclusion :
1) this is instead a double bottom/ running flat ABC, and we are good to go (up)
2) one more wave up and one last down, and we good to go (up)
3)There never was a triangle and i'm wrong (down toward 440)

6 июл. 2018 г.

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I didn't adjust my count, because i could just lower that C over and over until proven right.
This could be a descending triangle, which would be a perfect bear trap.
There is way too many overlap in this structure and I CANNOT see any 1-2-3-4-5 down (subwaves or other), only a-b-c.
So either it's a triangle, a WXY, or we haven't started wave C yet (from more likely to less likely)

We have a tiny bullish divergence on H1 with macd and StockRSI.

If i were to go with my guts, i'd go with the bear trap, descending triangle, and we would be now set for one more touch down.
But this isn't a trade i'd like to take.

6 июл. 2018 г.

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target hit
I'm seeing 5 wave up, macd made a new high and broke above.
All of the fibs are valid option for what's next.
I'm betting a bit below my next orange target, fib 0.3 would be a "by the book" play. But fib 0.2 looks even better, it would be a nice trap for anyone selling the breakout or waiting on a lower low.
(Not excluding 100% neither)

Still cautious but it's looking good.

6 июл. 2018 г.

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on m5 :

7 июл. 2018 г.

Заметка

target hit,
Got one last one for now

7 июл. 2018 г.

Сделка активна

triangle is complete,target reached
new idea with upside targets here :

Thank you for following and happy trading !