ETH-USD Short Update - Bear Flag Breakout Sub $100 Potential

2 окт. 2018 г.

This is just a brief update to the Bear Flag Pattern I have been following in ETH-USD. This pattern started to present itself back in early September when ETH dropped out of the $280 range all the way to low 170s on September 11th - September 12th. The bearish flag pattern is forming nicely and has been confirmed by multiple data points over the past two weeks. Within the original large yellow bear flag pattern charted, another smaller blue bear flag pattern also appears to have formed. If ETH crosses the lower bound of the smaller blue bearish flag then I believe it will quickly cross the yellow lower bound and lead to a large downwards breakout.

The larger yellow bear flag pattern's second leg down (the start of the blue flag) was a smaller dip than expected. I believe breaking the yellow flag at this point will result in the large downwards breakout originally expected (green line down).

I am posting an update and new idea related to this position because I am keenly watching the MACD on both the 8 and 4 hour windows. The last time the MACD fully crossed down on the 8 hour we saw decent price movement downwards from the upper bound of the yellow flag which formed the new smaller blue flag within the original pattern. Yesterday I posted an update since it appeared it may cross the 8 hour soon. This is illustrated by point "A" on the MACD and the ETH chart. The cross was denied yesterday but it looks like we are close to another downwards cross, see point "B" on the chart.

Since I am trading high leverage I am waiting to enter until the trend fully breaks out. I am looking for a clear cross on the 8 hour before I enter. I believe these current prices could be a fair entry point but ETH is especially volatile and I don't want to get wiped out by leverage before we see the downward movements I am predicting. I am setting up entry points from $220 down to $210, even $205 depending on momentum, if this is the breakout I am expecting we could see a price decline along the length of the green line of the larger bear flag. We could see sub $180 ETH prices in the next 2-3 days if it breaks now.

I will not be entering this trade until it crosses. I think it could be profitable to enter now but that is up to you as an individual and your risk tolerance.

3 окт. 2018 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

Last night I entered this trade at 2223.50/ETH and kept my position open until I closed out at 217.50/ETH.

This was a quick turnaround for a 2.68% gain. Nothing major, but I entered the trade at 25x leverage which netted a nice 67%+ gain on this trade.

ETH did not drop as much as I had anticipated on the cross so I closed out the position when I noticed support forming above $217.50. The price has since stabilized. I will be watching this trend over the next couple days to determine if I want to enter again or if a short position is even viable.