Fractal on ETHUSD calling for new lows (Better on dual screens)

23 нояб. 2023 г.

I took a fractal from 2021. (Below screen)

PA was very interesting. Despite the different TF, I think we are kind of the same behaviour here.

Lets enjoy this.

23 нояб. 2023 г.

Заметка

Here is some clarification why this pattern.

First, I looked for accumulation / distribution pattern looking like ascending / descending triangle. Then I had in mind the biggest (but also the most recent) one which is May 2021 (You can also take this one, but imo it's way to old, market has changed a lot since

).
After finding it, I saw these 3 tops (which are bottoms on the May 21 fractal) then the HL (LH on May21) which fits current PA.
Once the overall was kind off the same I started zooming in and it turns out from the "analysis" it had the same PA.

After a lot of time thinking about it (weeks), I told myself, such pattern need lot of liquidity which we had in 2021 (QE, low rates etc). Then I asked myself why the TF (time frame) is so different, Daily vs weekly.
It came to my mind that the market is not as wild as before (regulators crackdown, FTX events, big bankruptcy, people having less money to gamble, inflation etc).
So May 2021 pattern is quicker because of the liquidity abundance (today we are the same price level, yet Global net liquidity is down at least 10% so Trillions).
Also you have to keep in mind that the current pattern moved thanks to a lot of News (ETF/ Bankruptcy) meanwhile May 2021 was pure apes trading.

All of this just because this market is controlled by a few (Tether and whales) and they trade through Algo that copy what worked before.
You can see these as TWAP pattern for accumulation or distribution.

This is just me spotting things, I share so I can follow how this evolve and if other people spot them to.

Also this looks like a lot like 2018 PA "bananas patern", but before such pattern had parabolic move and used to take the lows/highs, no it's just turn into descendind ascending triangle as there is more actors in the market.