An Optimistic But Volatile Future Ahead For Ethereum

25 мар.

Hi everyone, I should preface and say I am a relatively new ETH investor. I was primarily a strict BTC maxi since 2017, but after putting in the time last year to learn about ETH and what its core philosophy is, I understand it better and I am actually very interested in what it is capable of! I think many of the ETH community can vouch for that. It's hip, cool, and experimental. I honestly think there are many BTC maxis that refuse to accept this is fundamentally a different project than BTC was- not just technologically. For those not involved in crypto- or are just average retail investors, ETH may just seem like a 2nd coin behind BTC that does all the same stuff "basically". That was just me being naïve and stupid, and I unironically thought like this for years.

I love the fact that the ETH community rallies behind it so hard. They are a very different group than many of the BTC investors I follow and have followed in the past. They seem to have a really strong core and tight knit community that do not care much about what 3rd party entities will tell them what to do or who to be. The developers (mostly) all seem incredibly passionate and want to really create practical and also experimental projects. I think mentioning this context is essential in my TA because ETH investors fundamentally believe in the core project so much that I think they will successfully create some type of "mainstream" adoption within the next 10 years. I have no clue how that will look like- and I don't think anyone does yet. But the ETH community has a strong spirit that I do not see breaking- ESPECIALLY with Larry FInk and BlackRock still in the equation. They just partnered with Securitize and are going to slowly begin to execute their "tokenization" of assets. This leads into the biggest news of the year for Ethereum, the ETF.

As much as I want this ETF to pass on May 23rd, it will not. I don't know how it will go down, but this will be prolonged somehow. And I do not see the market reacting lightly to the news for the mid term (basically all summer). Gary Gensler really does not seem comfortable even speaking about ETH any time he is being recorded. The SEC is currently asking for more funding to lawyer up against the potential future court cases that WILL happen when the ETF gets denied. The SEC seem incredibly nervous about opening up a door that can't be shut- if the ETH ETF gets approved, I can only imagine how many other chains will want to have their own ETF... No matter what you think of other coins, it seems like the SEC and Gary really do not like crypto all that much and are only really willing to let BTC slide. I think they want congress to eventually enact real legislation against cryptocurrency as a whole in the future.

I think something will happen in between May 23rd and August 7th, the day BlackRock's ETF filing expires- but I'm not sure what exactly. I think the most likely case is they go to court and the SEC loses in court. Maybe the ETF gets approved with an amendment that there can be no staking the ETF? Do people even care about this? (sorry if so) The best current argument seems to be that there exists ETH Futures ETF, so why would an ETH ETF be an issue? And then by August 7th, the BlackRock ETF should be approved and Ethereum is going to launch. My gut tells me it goes for the 10k push into the end of the year, and then we consolidate early 2025 with a final blowoff maybe middle of 2025. Who knows after that, prob bear/crab market until next halving like close to 2028-2029 or around there.

Very exciting times ahead! Personally I'm incredibly nervous with my investment in ETH. I'm still a BTC maxi to the core because it really is just the best sound money to ever exist. I really consider it my true savings account at this point. But ETH is my risk bet. I fully trust in that ETHBTC ratio and have watched that thing for years- despite never having any interest in purchasing Ethereum. I've also gotten burned in the past- having bought LTC at its peak in 2017 and holding still to this day... I have no more faith in that project honestly. I don't want this to happen to ETH, and I can say that I really do believe in its community. I hope the developers and companies out there innovate some really cool things that make our lives better/easier. But I do see ETH really as a long term investment, whereas BTC at this point for me is essentially just savings that I am not getting rid of anyways.

Cheers everyone, I think no matter what, that if you own ETH and you hold, you will win in the long run. Good luck to the traders too!!

27 мар.

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Short update. In the last 2 days alone, we have kept receiving positive news about a potential ETH ETF. Just yesterday in the KuCoin debacle, ETH was described as a commodity by the CTFC once again. And as of today, Fidelity just applied for their S-1 Spot ETH ETF. Ethereum owners, we will be partying soon enough.

I really don't even think this ETF is THAT important realistically for ETH's true value. Not in the same way BTC's ETF is. I think (for now) the individuals investing and using Ethereum don't really need the ETF, but it would definitely be a nice boost. Maybe I'm underestimating how many people would actually buy the ETH ETF. Ethereum seems to be a coin that has more applicable usage by actually owning it- rather than buying the potential ETF. HOWEVER, Fidelity does want staking with their ETF... so I would totally concede that maybe this is where the value lies in the ETF. If the ETF does get approved, I don't think we'll see flows into it super fast at first- not remotely close to BTC's current flows. I hope I'm proven wrong.

To me, the importance of the ETF is for market sentiment and overall justification that Ethereum is important, has passed many regulatory hurdles, and is officially here to stay. Long term, this ETF is a drop in the bucket. But short-mid term I think we really want this ETF to pass if we want the bull market to stay as incredibly strong as it has been for the last 7 months.

I encourage to skim the S-1 form here. Page 57 is where they go into a bit more detail about regulatory risks such as the lack of clarity in the SEC.
sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2000046/000119312524077886/d759655ds1.htm#tx759655_3

28 мар.

Заметка

Reading into his actual comments though... I am a bit confused. Is it possible to label Ethereum as both a commodity and security? Maybe there will be some odd contingency on the upcoming ETF. Regardless I am very ready and this has been exciting to follow in real time.