📊ETHEREUM -🌀Last 'Hopium' in such bloody crypto market❗❕❓

KRAKEN:ETHUSDT   Ethereum / Tether USD
Hello to all crypto community and tradingviewers, this is the 'MA' again , aka smart trader !

Today I'm gonna have a deep dive in to ethereum ,
but Before jumping in to the analysis , lets see what the 'Hopium' means ?!

"Hopium . Portmanteau of “hope” and “opium” which is a common word in crypto traders community is the “under the influence” like state traders feel sometimes while traders waiting for their tokens to raise in price. This word is especially used when the feelings of the traders is based on pure speculation and not actual fundamentals."

After a few days when the FTX exchange collapsed and was completely broken, this fear quickly appeared in the entire crypto market that the crypto space is completely destroyed! Of course, we have the right because it was a big exchange!
I personally predicted that the centralized exchanges will disappear one day, maybe even big Binance after FTX! Because they are still centralized entities , which completely contradicts the decentralized nature of crypto! especially when decentralized exchanges become more advanced secure and safe against hacks!
I may have discussed this topic more in another post!

✅Today I wanna first have an on-chain analysis for ETH !

🌐According to cryptoquant data:
ETH Netflow to exchanges (Before and after ETH Merge )
Before ETH Merge event we saw a significant amount outflow of ETH from exchange but , As the Merge update went into effect, a record amount of ETH flowed onto exchanges. According to data from cryptoquant , we havnt seen this amount of NETflow since February 2019, 3.5 years ago.

🔷Interpretation(By value itself):
The difference between coins flowing into and out of the exchange. (Inflow - Outflow = Netflow)
🔹Positive value indicates reserve in increasing >>> Increase of outflow from exchanges is mostly a Bullish sign
🔹For spot exchange, high value indicates increasing selling pressure.>>> Increase of inflow to exchanges is mostly a Bearish sign
🔹For derivative exchange, high value indicates possible high volatility and helps predict market trend

🌐According to glassnode data:

📈 #Ethereum $ETH Amount of Supply Last Active 1y-2y (1d MA >>The amount of circulating supply last moved between 1 year and 2 years ago.) just reached an ATH of 35,209,635.097 ETH
ETH reached its bottom , after Previous ATH in 2018-2019 .
this chart indicate that bottom is near !

📉 #Ethereum $ETH Balance on Exchanges just reached a 4-year low of 19,948,243.206 ETH
IMO, ETH owners aim to hold and accumulate their ETH assets as a long term investment rather than trade them in exchanges , basically a bullish sign but historically the ETH chart price show we almost had at least 6M delay between price reaction to this indices!

🔰while fundamentalists still believe in a bullish rally in the next couple of months ahead (for 2023), but some technicalists are not optimistic for that(at least until 2024) and still awaiting for more decline interested to discover a lower bottom for ETH

📊My Technical POV:

As you can see in the weekly timeframe chart, Ethereum has been decreasing in a strong downward wedge, exactly similar to the pattern we saw for Bitcoin in the previous analysis. Which in turn is a very bullish pattern in the long term.
Ethereum has continued to decline after a rise by reacting to the VWAP line, and so far it has performed according to my analysis and expectations!
In the recent crash, the market has fallen below the resistance and pivot area with strong selling pressure, and the market bears are still more powerful than bulls. And in the short term, we can expect a rejection and a decline to the $1000 lvl , by hitting the higher resistance areas!
If this level($1000) is lost in the medium or long term, it will scoot down to the lower support around $600 through the VOLUME GAP (777-888) , and in the worst case scenario, it will touch the Demand territory ($400), which in this case , we have to wait Until 2024 ,to see a strong rise from the bottom to higher goals!
(Also, if the price action works according to the scenario of the fundamentalists, it should be able to start an upward trend around the beginning of 2023 by breaking the pivot and resistance areas, as well as the downward trend lines. but In this case, I still expect a rejection in the supply area of ​​the price.)

It should be noted that as we know, crypto is a crazy space , and It is not necessary that it must follow my prediction because as we know the market is a possibility and the market goes its own way; But it will definitely react to the key zones and the VWAP line!
although higher time frames need more time to reach price targets; however I still believe in Huge Targets for ETH (2025-2026)

✌️ Good luck with your trading and investing and remember: Trade smart…OR JUST DON’T TRADE!
👉This analysis is my personal opinion ,not a financial advice ,so do your own research.
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