12/29 ETHUSDT Potential Relief Rally within a Major Downtrend

29 дек. 2025 г.

1. Context (背景分析): The overall structure remains bearish. After a significant 45% drawdown from the major top, the price is now entering a consolidation phase. (整體結構維持看跌。在從大頭部回落約 45% 後，價格目前進入盤整階段。)

2. The Logic of Scales (規模邏輯): Technically, the current consolidation base is much smaller than the previous distribution top. Therefore, the probability of a "V-shape" recovery to new highs is relatively low at this stage. (從技術面來看，目前的整理區間規模遠小於先前的派發頭部。因此，現階段要出現 V 轉並創下新高的機率並不高。)
https://www.tradingview.com/x/4MLXgSc3/
3. The Opportunity (機會點): However, a short-term rebound (Relief Rally) is highly probable. We are looking for a mean reversion play as the selling pressure shows signs of exhaustion in the local range. *(然而，短期內的**反彈（緩解式上漲）*是非常有可能的。隨著局部區間的拋壓顯現疲態，我們正在尋找一個均值回歸的交易機會。)

4. Execution & Risk (執行與風險): Since this is a counter-trend trade, I will keep my targets realistic and my stop loss tight. Trading with zero pressure by focusing on the process, not the outcome. (由於這是一筆逆勢交易，我會保持務實的獲利目標並嚴格設置止損。專注於過程而非結果，保持零壓力的交易狀態。)

5.Execution & Risk Management (執行與風險控管): Since we are trading a rebound underneath a major topping structure, we are naturally exposed to higher risks. Therefore, my position sizing will be more conservative than usual.
Signal: A high-volume breakout signal appeared on Dec 29, 00:00.
Maximum Risk (Hard Stop): 6.5% at $2774. This is the invalidation point for the entire local structure.
Short-term Risk: ~3% at $2888. This level provides a tighter exit for a high-precision setup.

6.Profit Targets (獲利目標)
I am looking for high-probability targets to ensure a positive expectancy:

Primary Target: The Previous High (Local resistance).

Secondary Target: Based on a 1:3 Risk/Reward Ratio. (獲利目標看向前高或是滿足 1:3 的盈虧比。)

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Сделка активна

Target 1 Reached: 1:3 RR Secured at Neckline Resistance
目標:鎖定 1:3 盈虧比

Current Situation (現況分析): The price has reached the key Neckline Resistance as anticipated. This was our primary target for this relief rally. (價格已如預期抵達關鍵的頸線壓力區。這是我們這波緩解式反彈的首要目標。)

Price has reached the neckline resistance area. I have secured profits by closing more than half of my position. Observation: The scale of the current consolidation is still smaller than the major top. I will now wait and observe if a new consolidation base forms at this resistance or if selling pressure resumes. Exit Plan: For the remaining position, I will set a trailing stop slightly below the midpoint ($3023) of the current consolidation range to protect the remaining gains.目前價格已抵達頸線壓力區，我已在此鎖定獲利並減倉一半以上。 技術觀察： 目前底部的整理規模仍小於先前的頭部結構。我將在此持續觀察，看價格是在此壓力位附近形成新的整理底座以蓄勢突破，還是拋售壓力會重新介入。 離場計畫： 剩餘部位我將在當前整理區間的中值 ($3023) 下方設置停利，以確保最終利潤不被侵蝕。

Personal Preference: my typical trading style is to reduce 70% of my position at the first major target. This allows me to secure the bulk of the profits while staying completely pressure-free for the remainder of the move.在第一個重大目標區，我通常習慣先調節 70% 的部位。這能讓我鎖定絕大部分的獲利，並以完全**「零壓力」**的心態觀察剩餘部位的後續走勢。