Confluence art, 1700 and 1600, How do we get there?

25 мая 2023 г.

We are looking for macro events to take out this support line.

• Seeing the Monday bump sold off tends a no for another retest.
  
• 1800 has had several days of support, but the longer it sits the weaker it gets.
  
• There are fib convergences from major moves at 1600 and 1700.
  
• 1700 will likely not be strong support, the logistical destination is the plotted down trend however, this is would be a hard fight without macro upset (ETH & BTC will probably bump on any bad news, unless there are some anomalies in distribution, keep in mind recent regulation)
  
• Stock sell off and DXY run don't lend to bull narrative, however stocks are projected to keep running, you may have noticed ETH's SPX coorelation has weakened significantly, but there is still a demonstrated appetite for risk.
  
• There are some huge triggers around 1600-1550 from a TA perspective (SAR flip, W RSI running hot, 200D MA retest) but I don't think that TA will be the leader, it will be liquidity.
  

Good time to cover positions with short, wait for the debt-ceiling drama to play out.

14 июн. 2023 г.

Заметка

Liquidity ultimately was the problem breaking into 1900 again. There were traps and liquidity grabs but ultimately sent really big failure signals.

Institutions heavily restraint on risk appetite, SEC pulled the plug, with FOMC today declaring more hikes later, there really isn't much telling what the markets will look like in 2-3 let alone 6 months.

I am unsure if we will hit bottom here, or if we will see a panic period, which might be more 'sell off' estimating 1400, or even lower 1300-900 before a possible return to the anticipated halving run in 2024.

As liquidity is firming in BTC I am looking for *that* support in a lower range around 23k.

14 июн. 2023 г.

Заметка

Further review, this is testing 200D MA, if downside occurs we should refer to higher timeframe indicators.