EUR/CHF at a Critical Juncture: Will It Move Higher?
The EUR/CHF pair has been experiencing a prolonged downtrend over the past few months, with consistent declines culminating in a record low of 0.9208. This scenario underscores strong seller dominance, as the market continually tests new support levels.
Descending Triangle Analysis
Currently, EUR/CHF is consolidating within a descending triangle pattern. This formation is characterised by a horizontal support line at the base and a descending trend line at the top. It indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, although with escalating selling pressure as each peak becomes lower. Historically, the descending triangle is viewed as a continuation pattern, suggesting a higher likelihood of a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this instance is downward. However, the horizontal support around 0.9305 has emerged as a psychologically significant level, acting as a protective barrier for buyers.
False Breakout of Support
On 19 November, EUR/CHF exhibited a false breakout below this support level, with the price momentarily breaching it. The presence of long lower shadows on the candles indicates a substantial rejection of selling pressure. This behaviour may suggest that, at least in the short term, buyers still maintain the ability to defend this critical level.
Additionally, analysing the candle formations at the support provides insights into market sentiment. The emergence of long lower shadows implies that, despite a prevailing bearish environment, active buyers perceive value at current price levels. This rejection may open doors for a potential recovery, particularly if there is a convincing breakout above the descending trend line of the triangle.
The sellers' behaviour is also notable: their inability to generate higher highs indicates that while they are persistently pushing prices lower, this pressure is gradually being absorbed by buyers at lower levels. This dynamic interplay of forces makes triangles a critical pattern to monitor, as any breakout—upwards or downwards—typically results in substantial price movement.
The key now is to observe whether buyers can gather enough strength to breach the downtrend line, which could invalidate the classic continuation pattern and signify a potential reversal or at least a more pronounced corrective movement. Conversely, if sellers effectively break through the horizontal support without significant rejections, the triangle will confirm its continuation structure, allowing the downtrend to extend.
Bullish Scenario
If the price manages to break above the triangle’s downtrend line, it could signify a reversal or at least a considerable correction. The initial target for this upward movement would be:
First Target: The 0.9500 region, marking the next recent high.
Final Target: The 0.9770 level, which represents a significant peak in recent months.
A breakout of the upper trend line, supported by confirmations such as increased volume or bullish candlestick patterns, would enhance the potential for upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
Alternatively, if the support at 0.9305 is broken, EUR/CHF may continue its downward trajectory. Such a breach would align with the descending triangle formation, with potential targets including:
First Support: 0.9250 (a psychologically important level and previous support zone).
Final Support: 0.9200 or lower, potentially exploring uncharted territory.
EUR/CHF stands at a decisive moment. The rejection observed at support and the formation of the triangle provide opportunities in both directions. Monitoring price action against the upper trend line and horizontal support will be crucial for identifying the next significant move in this evolving market landscape.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Descending Triangle Analysis
Currently, EUR/CHF is consolidating within a descending triangle pattern. This formation is characterised by a horizontal support line at the base and a descending trend line at the top. It indicates a temporary balance between buyers and sellers, although with escalating selling pressure as each peak becomes lower. Historically, the descending triangle is viewed as a continuation pattern, suggesting a higher likelihood of a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend, which in this instance is downward. However, the horizontal support around 0.9305 has emerged as a psychologically significant level, acting as a protective barrier for buyers.
False Breakout of Support
On 19 November, EUR/CHF exhibited a false breakout below this support level, with the price momentarily breaching it. The presence of long lower shadows on the candles indicates a substantial rejection of selling pressure. This behaviour may suggest that, at least in the short term, buyers still maintain the ability to defend this critical level.
Additionally, analysing the candle formations at the support provides insights into market sentiment. The emergence of long lower shadows implies that, despite a prevailing bearish environment, active buyers perceive value at current price levels. This rejection may open doors for a potential recovery, particularly if there is a convincing breakout above the descending trend line of the triangle.
The sellers' behaviour is also notable: their inability to generate higher highs indicates that while they are persistently pushing prices lower, this pressure is gradually being absorbed by buyers at lower levels. This dynamic interplay of forces makes triangles a critical pattern to monitor, as any breakout—upwards or downwards—typically results in substantial price movement.
The key now is to observe whether buyers can gather enough strength to breach the downtrend line, which could invalidate the classic continuation pattern and signify a potential reversal or at least a more pronounced corrective movement. Conversely, if sellers effectively break through the horizontal support without significant rejections, the triangle will confirm its continuation structure, allowing the downtrend to extend.
Bullish Scenario
If the price manages to break above the triangle’s downtrend line, it could signify a reversal or at least a considerable correction. The initial target for this upward movement would be:
First Target: The 0.9500 region, marking the next recent high.
Final Target: The 0.9770 level, which represents a significant peak in recent months.
A breakout of the upper trend line, supported by confirmations such as increased volume or bullish candlestick patterns, would enhance the potential for upward movement.
Bearish Scenario
Alternatively, if the support at 0.9305 is broken, EUR/CHF may continue its downward trajectory. Such a breach would align with the descending triangle formation, with potential targets including:
First Support: 0.9250 (a psychologically important level and previous support zone).
Final Support: 0.9200 or lower, potentially exploring uncharted territory.
EUR/CHF stands at a decisive moment. The rejection observed at support and the formation of the triangle provide opportunities in both directions. Monitoring price action against the upper trend line and horizontal support will be crucial for identifying the next significant move in this evolving market landscape.
Disclaimer:
74% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
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