We remain short EUR/GBP in cash - Nomura

7 июл. 2021 г.

In the UK, the debate is centred on whether the government will decide to go ahead with the 19 July reopening (we expect most of the discussedloosening to materialize, but with some COVID-19 rules to remain for a bit longer) and if and when the BOE will turn more hawkish. Given the rise in the “Delta variant” and the delay in reopening the UK, UK equity outflows in June have weighed on the currency more than we expected. The BOE has also been more cautious than the Fed on rising inflation but, given the UK’s price pressures seen in the survey data, it appears to be just a matter of time before they need to become a bit more accepting of the idea. While we remain EUR optimists, GBP benefits from high exposure to the reopening trade (via equity sector exposure and reflation) and has a central bank that is more likely to tighten policy than the ECB. Thus, we remain short EUR/GBP in cash (target 0.83 by year end) but do note that it is unclear what will happen before the government makes its decision on the roadmap.