EURGBP - Catching a falling knife

19 янв. 2022 г.

Had this as a limit order in for a couple of months. Finally triggered today.

0.93% Risk, both legs : 186bps risk
TP1: 1.12%
TP2: 1.88%
186bps/300bps is not a great RR Ratio at all.

Adjust trade based on daily candle close.

21 янв. 2022 г.

Сделка активна

Big negative candle yesterday after a teasing daily hammer close. Yesterdays candle did close within range of the previous.

Still within my trade parameters but not the bounce we are hoping for.

21 янв. 2022 г.

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UK Retail Sales out in 2 hours.
Looks like already priced lower, so would need a stronger miss to move GBP. Estimate -0.6% compared to 1.4% for November.
Wouldn't we expect retail sales to be higher in December?

22 янв. 2022 г.

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UK Retail sales really poor compared to expectations. Seems to have had a strong reaction in GBP weakness.

EURGBP strong jump, 4 hour candle just over half over, Supertrend showing bullish and potentially KAMA also showing strength.

Purple line shows area of resistance, around 0.8365-0.8375, so initial target at 0.8390 is ambitious, but significant levels provide support.

1st Target at 0.8390, last week high was 0.8376.
Move at least one leg to BE.

22 янв. 2022 г.

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So TP2 moved to BE @ 0.83185.
Total Risk on Trade is now 92 bps.

25 янв. 2022 г.

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TP1 was hit at 0.8390, 112 bps profit.
TP2 not hit overnight and some strong retracement back to breakout in the 0.8365-0.8375 area.
SL is now at breakeven, but suspect most people long from the bottom would consider SL under that area at 0.8350.
See what close is like today, on whether to move SL higher.

25 янв. 2022 г.

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Noting also a close above the line, would be a daily buy signal. If closes like that, then I may consider TP move higher towards 0.8500, TP2 is at 0.8440 at moment.

27 янв. 2022 г.

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So close was actually below Baseline, so now we have a sell potential if today's close confirms Sell signal.
Baseline signal change, essentially require 2 closes above baseline to trigger signal.

Less confident this will will hit my second target, but will hold.

27 янв. 2022 г.

Сделка активна

Something I need to work on more, at one point this was a 250bps profit trade, now its looking very likely to be stopped out by my BE SL.

Trying to catch trends with this system, but note that more often than not after a false breakout, the move is fully retraced. I am tempted to look at any trade near a 200 bps profit I should just fully close. This is not a losing trade, but with the second leg being 160bps in profit, back to BE its money left on the table.

27 янв. 2022 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

Seems inevitable that I will be stopped out, so locking a 11 bps profit to close out trade.

27 янв. 2022 г.

Заметка

Gain of 123bps in total, not bad but could have been much better, even taking Exit signals from my own exit signals would have been better.

Keep on learning.