EURNZD lower
Trying EURNZD lower here.
From a technical perspective we have a double top and a resistance line above, we also have the RSI diverging lower on the 4 hour chart as well which makes me think this move higher has run out of steam possibly. We also have a couple doji's on the daily chart in this area which is a sign of uncertainty.
I think the narrative for the previous downtrend is still in place, we do have a hawkish ECB but i think this is mostly priced in as the ECB is likely to stick to what they said they were going to do. Global growth has shown signs of improvement recently and AUD and NZD are likely to be winners in that environment over EUR.
Correlations mostly suggest lower, VIX is lower, MOO (which is and agricultural ETF and closely correlated to NZD) is moving higher which should suggest EURNZD moves lower, commodities are also moving higher. yields are moving higher on EURNZD as well which is an issue but i'm not sure this lasts for too much longer.
sentiment and positioning for the pair is extremely high as well which should slow moves higher in the pair.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
From a technical perspective we have a double top and a resistance line above, we also have the RSI diverging lower on the 4 hour chart as well which makes me think this move higher has run out of steam possibly. We also have a couple doji's on the daily chart in this area which is a sign of uncertainty.
I think the narrative for the previous downtrend is still in place, we do have a hawkish ECB but i think this is mostly priced in as the ECB is likely to stick to what they said they were going to do. Global growth has shown signs of improvement recently and AUD and NZD are likely to be winners in that environment over EUR.
Correlations mostly suggest lower, VIX is lower, MOO (which is and agricultural ETF and closely correlated to NZD) is moving higher which should suggest EURNZD moves lower, commodities are also moving higher. yields are moving higher on EURNZD as well which is an issue but i'm not sure this lasts for too much longer.
sentiment and positioning for the pair is extremely high as well which should slow moves higher in the pair.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
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