EUR/USD Faces Downside as Powell's Hawkish Remarks Boost USD

1 окт.

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish remarks on Monday continue to support the US Dollar (USD), capping any significant upside potential for the Euro (EUR). Powell’s stance suggests that the Federal Reserve is still focused on curbing inflation, which has strengthened the USD and weighed on the major pair.

At the same time, expectations for more rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) have contributed to keeping a lid on the EUR/USD. This comes ahead of key economic data releases, particularly the flash Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The pair, as predicted last week, is currently trading within a supply area, with price action forming a double top pattern. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain extremely bullish on the Euro, while larger institutional players are more cautious, signaling potential downside risks.

The flash CPI report, due later today, is expected to show that inflation in the Eurozone likely fell below the ECB’s 2% target in September. This follows a notable drop in Germany’s CPI to its lowest level since February 2021, which reinforces expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the ECB’s next policy meeting in October. A softer CPI print would likely reaffirm these rate cut bets, applying further downward pressure on the Euro.

However, even if the CPI reading comes in higher than expected, the market reaction could be muted. The modest strength of the USD, supported by Powell's comments and the overall hawkish stance of the Fed, suggests that EUR/USD may struggle to gain upward momentum. The path of least resistance for the pair remains to the downside, as the technical setup points to a potential bearish continuation.

In conclusion, with the EUR/USD pair trading in a supply area and forming a double top, coupled with a cautious outlook from institutional traders, the risk of a bearish continuation looms large. Key economic data, including the Eurozone CPI, will be closely watched today, but the fundamental backdrop remains in favor of the USD, keeping pressure on the pair. Traders should remain alert to further downside movement, especially if the ECB rate cut expectations solidify.

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4 окт.

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