EURUSD bears keep reins with eyes on US GDP, ECB’s Lagarde

25 июл.

EURUSD licks its wounds at the lowest level in a fortnight as sellers jostle with a 200-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) support ahead of the US Q2 GDP and a speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. In doing so, the Euro pair justifies the early-week breakdown of a month-old rising support line, now immediate resistance near 1.0900. However, downbeat RSI conditions and a looming bull cross on the MACD hint at the quote’s corrective bounce off the stated EMA support of 1.0825. In a case where the Euro prices remain weak past 1.0825, the 1.0800 threshold and 61.8% Fibonacci ratio of April-July upside, near 1.0735, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.0675, will be important to watch for the bears ahead of targeting the yearly low marked in April surrounding 1.0600.

Alternatively, downbeat US statistics could join the hawkish comments from ECB’s Lagarde to underpin the EURUSD pair’s rebound from the key EMA support of 1.0825. The same line highlights the support-turned-resistance line stretched from late June, near the 1.0900 threshold at the latest. It’s worth noting, however, that the Euro buyer’s ability to keep the reins past 1.0900 depends on a clear upside break of an upward-sloping resistance line stretched from early April, around 1.0950 as we write. Following that, the bulls can easily challenge the 1.1000 psychological magnet.

Overall, EURUSD prices are likely to remain weak unless crossing 1.0950. However, the downside room appears limited and may lack momentum due to the scheduled data/events.