Not the best day for the dollar, split in the ECB, April pound

17 апр. 2019 г.

The pound “reacted” to the UK data came out earlier, more than calmly. Meanwhile, investors and traders are betting whether the pound will confirm the existence of the “April Rally” pattern or not. Recall that over the last 13 years (with the exception of the last year), the pound in April strengthened against the dollar. This was perhaps the strongest seasonal trend among the currencies of group 10.

The reason for the existence of such a pattern is rather prosaic: many British companies are transnational. Received dividends abroad, they transfer them home, that means, convert them into pounds. This model worked even during the global financial crisis of 2008. But last year, by the end of April, the pound fell against the dollar. The reason is clear - Brexit. At the moment, experts are puzzled if last year was an exception to the rule and the pound will rise again in April. Or Brexit broke the pattern and April is no longer an indication that the pound will grow.

Let’s back to yesterday's statistics. Industrial production in the US in March decreased by 0.1% (analysts had expected an increase of 0.2%). In general, this is another alarming signal for the US economy and the dollar in particular. It's going to be more interesting watching the statistics on retail sales in the United States on Thursday. If the data comes out weak, then sales of the dollar, apparently, cannot be avoided. Moreover, Charles Evans, the President, and CEO of the FRB of Chicago said that the scenario in which the Fed does not raise rates until 2020 is quite likely.

Another interesting news was the information from Reuters that some ECB politicians believe that the bank’s economic forecasts are too optimistic because the weakness of economic growth in China and trade tensions persist. Although the information from Reuters is unofficial, the signal is negative for the euro both in terms of the state of the Eurozone economy and in terms of the fact that in such conditions it is not necessary to expect the ECB’s monetary policy to tighten in the foreseeable future.

Let’s talk about macroeconomic statistics. The most important data from China (GDP, industrial production and retail sales) have already been published. All data came out better than expected, which should reassure the markets.

In addition, the Eurozone and the UK inflation statistics will be published as well as Canada. It is also worth paying attention to data on the US trade balance.

Also on Wednesday, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to give a speech, that could trigger a surge of volatility in pound pairs.
As for our trading preferences, we will continue to look for points for dollar sales in the foreign exchange market (with the exception of USDJPY, which we are still buying), buying gold and oil in the commodity markets and keep on selling the Russian ruble.