General Market Outlook - August 31st, 2014

31 авг. 2014 г.

Hello TradingView!

I just got back from a very relaxing and much needed break, I hope everyone had an enjoyable August as well. So let's get started on this week's General Market Outlook!

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Interesting Pairs:

EUR/USD - Bullish

- If price doesn't gap up at market open today, I'm probably going to open a few small longs then load some more as we approach my interesting levels.
- Tight stops under 1.31XX though because the next level of interest is close by.

Interesting Levels:
- Low 1.31XX (Sept 2013 lows + lower trend line)
- Low 1.30XX (78.6% fib level from July 2013 move)

Targets:
- Mid 1.32XX (price hasn't closed the gap yet)
- Low 1.33XX (previous target and first resistance level)
- Low 1.35XX (second resistance level)

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USD/CAD - Bullish

- Assuming the 1.081X level holds as support, price looks like it's poised to test the 1.1000 level again.
- If you don't already have a position, now isn't a very good time to load longs unless you have a large risk tolerance. I'd only consider loading longs if price gets closer to the 1.081X level.

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XAG/USD - Bearish

- Deja Vu? Looks like history might repeat itself.
- If it does, then price is going to test the 18.6X level again (for the 4th time in a descending triangle formation).
- The 18.6X level may not hold this time around and if it does break, price might tumble down quite a bit.

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Confusing Pairs:

AUD/USD - Used to have a clear cut middle line but seems to have developed a dead zone in the middle now. Considering we're stuck in the dead zone right now, I don't know where price is heading from here.

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GBP/USD - Bullish?

- I have conflicting views on this one. On one hand, the mid 1.64XX region is a likely target to hit but on the other, it looks like price is exhausted and wants to retrace a bit first before hitting it.
- General consensus among bears right now is for the mid 1.64XX region to hit first but who knows?
- If it does go up, targets are 1.669X, 1.676X & 1.681X.

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USD/JPY - Bearish?

- I'm tempted to say bearish because price didn't 'actually' break the 104 level yet. Price simply gapped up above it then went down, this doesn't qualify as a normal "break".
- Thus, based on how price has been behaving for the past week, I think the 104 level is still acting as resistance and price may drop from here.
- If it does drop, 103.0X is the target level (previous resistance + projected parallel trend line)

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Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.