Weekly EUR/USD Outlook

9 мая 2023 г.

This week's key economic data, particularly Wednesday's inflation report, will play a significant role in determining the direction of the EUR/USD pair. If the inflation data reveals that the Fed needs to take more aggressive action to control inflation, the dollar could strengthen, leading to a short position for the EUR/USD pair. On the other hand, if the data suggests that the current interest rate is sufficient to keep inflation in check, the dollar might weaken, resulting in a long position for the EUR/USD pair.

Last week's economic data, which included a lower-than-expected unemployment rate (0.2% less than forecast) and a higher nonfarm payroll figure (up from 165k to 253k), demonstrated a robust labor market in the U.S. These strong figures could decrease the pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and potentially support the U.S. dollar.

In light of the recent economic data, the dollar may find support from the strong labor market performance. However, this week's inflation report remains a crucial factor for determining the future path of interest rates and the strength of the dollar. A higher-than-expected inflation rate may prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain or even increase interest rates, supporting the dollar and leading to a short position for the EUR/USD pair. In contrast, if inflation remains contained or below expectations, the dollar might lose strength, leading to a long position for the EUR/USD pair.

As an investor or trader, closely monitor this week's economic data releases, especially the inflation report, to make informed decisions on the EUR/USD pair's direction. Be prepared to adjust your positions based on the data outcomes and any shifts in market sentiment.