General Market Outlook - July 5th, 2014

6 июл. 2014 г.

Interesting Pairs:

GBP/USD - Bearish
- I really thought the 1.71 level would've held but I was wrong and lost 20 pips on the news spike on Tuesday.
- The next level of interest was 1.718X (161.8% fib level). Price has gotten close but hasn't touched my level yet.
- I'm still bearish on the pair, the longer this bull run lasts, the more stretched it'll appear.
- However, I wouldn't be surprised if price continued moving up towards 1.73 (200% fib level) but I find that extremely unlikely.

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USD/CAD - Bullish
- Price got as low as 1.0620 this week and from the looks of it, might be building a base here.
- However, I'd much rather start loading my longs down at the 1.06 level (61.8% fib level).

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USD/JPY - Bearish
- I was right about the approaching support level bounce at 101.30 last week and managed to catch 60 pips in the process.
- However, I was wrong about the retest of the previously broken trend line and lost 10 pips for a net of +50 pips,
- The next level of interest is the 102.5X level for potential shorts, until then a small long from here might be interesting as well.

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XAG/USD - Bearish
- Nothing has changed from last week, still waiting to see what happens at $21.
- Given the current price struggle, I'm leaning towards a drop in the coming days/weeks.
- There's a possibility of a fake spike up to stop out the weak shorts and to catch bulls with a trap.

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Confusing Pairs:

Someone asked for my definition of a confusing pair, so here it is: The reason these pairs are "confusing" is because they broke my levels. If my levels had held, I would still be in my original position and thus, be holding them to my target but that isn't the case. Broken levels = new unconsidered levels = no trading due to not being prepared.

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AUD/USD - ???
- Right timing, wrong level (0.9450) - Last week I mentioned tight stops above this level for shorts.
- 0.9500 was a nice round level to stop and reverse but after it broke the 0.9450 level, I didn't pay attention to it.
- Price dropped primarily from bad AUD data and has currently bounced a bit at 0.9322 (61.8% fib level).
- Moving forwards, I don't really see anything of interest. It could keep dropping until 0.9200 as originally expected or it could bounce back up to 0.9500 again.

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EUR/USD - ???
- Right timing, wrong level (1.367X) - Last week I mentioned tight stops above this level for shorts.
- I got stopped out on the way up (-10 pips) but got back in on the way down (+75 pips).
- Moving forwards, I don't really see anything of interest. It could keep dropping until 1.35 or it could bounce back up to 1.37 from 1.357X (61.8% fib level).

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Note: Refer to last week's General Market Outlook if something doesn't make sense.

Risk Disclaimer: My analysis is provided solely as an educational tool. Should you decide to trade based on my analysis, do so at your own risk. I am not liable for any loss that you may incur. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

Trade Disclosure: All open positions are disclosed above, if I don't mention having one then it should be assumed at all times that I plan to trade based on my analysis, so take this into consideration as I may be biased.