EURUSD @ daily @ Basic Scenarios into 2017 (1st Quartal)

17 дек. 2016 г.

Basic Scenarios into 2017
In principle i am watching 3 scenarios, after eCB Marios speech, while last ECB press conference

• 1st scenario: 1.12994 - 1.05180 (reaction after ecb mario press conference)
  
• 2nd scenario: 1.05047 - 1.08734 (price recovery after sell reaction)
  
• 3nd scenario: 1.06700 - 1.03665 (price reaction after fed rate hike)

The question which poses to me is: "was this all?" or "Begin ot`s now?" - of course with the sell pressure in the euro-zone :)

How ever, prices under 1.03665 are sugesting are downfall under 1.00 at least :peace:
And if we`re using the two years old sideway trading box as matehmatic basis (1.04624 low from march`15 and even 1.17140 high from september`15) EURUSD could fall even down to around 0.90 ?! Even around around prices while 9/11 before 15 years (2001) ?! Definitely, we should look at the 3rd scenario, currently at first! And break to the downside should the development accelerate again. And prices above the 3rd scenario would focus us even in the 2nd scenario between 1.08734 - 1.05047 back again. And prices abovbe the 2nd scenario i can`t imagine anymore - after last ECB & FED press conferences, economic data and future exceptation in both currencies or even fiscal policies ...

Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your decission ...
(for a bigger picture zoom the chart)

This is only a analysis (for swing traders) - no recommendation !!!
Buying/Selling or even only watching is always your own responsibility ...

Best regards
Aaron