5-wave completion around 1.1669?

22 июл. 2020 г.

Monthly timeframe:

(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)

The month of May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912 and closed firm. This prompted an extension in June to highs at 1.1422, adding 1.2% despite also running into opposition at the lower ledge of nearby supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).

Interestingly, July, currently trading +3%, is attempting to overthrow the aforesaid trendline resistance.

With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited lower peaks and troughs since 2008.

Daily timeframe:

Thanks to yesterday’s bullish extension, a move that crossed above resistance at 1.1553, market participants are now likely eyeing a 5-wave completion around 1.1669 (where wave 1 equals wave 5). This, therefore, puts forward a bullish presence until reaching the aforesaid level.

Indicator-based traders will also want to note the RSI oscillator recently entered overbought territory.

H4 timeframe:

With the US dollar index dipping through 95.00 Wednesday, EUR/USD run into a resistance area from 1.1628/1.1600 and is, as you can see, currently unwinding lower, indicating a test of demand (prior supply) at 1.1545/1.1518 could come to fruition.

H1 timeframe:

Price embraced 1.16 heading into US trade yesterday, following an earlier push off channel support (prior resistance – 1.1467) during London which delivered enough upside to also haul the RSI into overbought territory.

With 1.16 currently featured as resistance, and the RSI exiting overbought waters, 1.1550 support is located close by, with a breach here unmasking channel support (1.1467) and 1.15.

Structures of Interest:

Noting monthly price trading above trendline resistance, albeit within the parapets of supply, daily price dethroning resistance at 1.1553 and the current trend indicating a northerly course, 1.1550 support on the H1 could be on the watchlist for many traders today for bullish signals.