Idea for E/U next week

5 янв. 2014 г.

What we had last week:

- E/U broke the main trend line I show on the chart.

- E/U pierced the support level 1.3622, that is the support of double tops pattern.

It means E/U pierced all important support levels.

The odds of trade E/U now is SELL, but everything is not simple like we think.

There are still more possibilities could happen next week. With a lot of important data are released, the future trend of E/U will be decided.

Next week is the week of economic reports.

- Monday:
+ Markit Service PMI of Germany
+Markit Service PMI of EU
+ CPI (YoY) of Germany
+Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) of Germany

+ Factory Order of US
+ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Tuesday
+ Unemployment Rate of Germany
+CPI (YoY) of EU

Wednesday
+ FOMC Minutes
+ADP report
+Retail Sales of EU
+ Unemployment Rate of EU

- Thursday
+ECB Interest Rate decision + monetary policy statement

- Friday
+ NFP report

Those are key reports next week : How can you anticipate the move of market with such lot of data ?. It's impossible. I can't forecast exactly what happen. All support and resistance levels I show on the chart have no value because it can be break any time.

I recommend traders should trade following news : trade after data is released. It's better than anticipate before releasing the report.

Indeed, I can predict surely that US economic data might be good : 70% possibility.
+ ISM positive
+ FOMC Minutes : positive
+ADP + NFP : positive

However, I cannot predict what will happen in EU.

I think ECB will keep their monetary policy unchanged because they told that it's unnecessary to change policy in the being time.

I have 4 choices on the table now:

- EU data positive, US data positive : The probability is 25% : EURUSD reaches 1.3755.

- EU data negative, US data positive: The probability is 40% : EURUSD reaches 1.34

- EU data positive ,US data negative: The probability is 15% : EURUSD reaches 1.38

- EU data negative, US data negative: The probability is 20%: EURUSD reaches 1.3523


In the mean time, I will open a position: SHORT E/U to 1.3523, stop loss at 1.37

And I will observe the data before giving further idea.