Bearish Pressure on Risk Off

5 янв. 2016 г.

Price made a large long wick candle during previous session
and was unable to make a clean break below the cloud even if
price in the end closed 3 pips below.. In my analysis I differ
between a clean break or a close below. As in yesterdays close,
a shy break still hints of bears being in control, even if it lacks
power. A clean break produce a big body candle and a close that
doesn't open inside the cloud on the following session.

A close today below 1,0759 will create a clean break.
After the Jan 11, the cloud will diminish and support become weaker.

Yesterday also saw a sharp drop on Chinese stock market which
spilled over to the rest of the world. The Jpy strengthed against all
majors and thus it was a pure "risk off" move. We may see more
of this theme going forward, which will weigh on EurUsd.

With a bearish MACD cross, shorts are favoured. Important
pivot support comes in at 1,0736, Weekly S3.
A close above yesterdays open, will probably take price back to the range
with further upside towards upper cloud or 1,10.