US GDP, analysts wait for recession and dollar collapse

31 мая 2019 г.

We have already written that the inversion of the yield curve (when the interest rates on long-term debt instruments are lower than on short-term debt instruments) is considered by many analysts as a signal of the impending recession. The same situation happened in 2000 before the US stock market fall, as well as 2006-2007 on the eve of the global financial crisis. So, in 2019, we observed an inversion in March, (there was a lot of noise in this regard). And here again, in May, interest rates on short-term bonds exceeded the long-term ones. Analysts at Morgan Stanley in this regard burst out with another apocalyptic forecast, including both the risk of recession and the sharp drop in the US stock market.

Based on current development around the trade war, this forecast does not seem so unreal. Especially when you consider that Citi's Global Economic uncertainty Index (measures whether data is better or worse than expected), has been in negative level for more than a year - this is the longest period of being below zero in the entire history.

Yesterday's data on US GDP for the first quarter (2019) is saving the investors from panic. The data were revised downward, but only slightly (up to 3.1% from 3.2%). In addition, experts predicted exactly that indicator value. Therefore, the dollar was not sold yesterday, but it would be strange to buy it actively based on such data.

Yesterday Trump was trying to calm the markets, stating that negotiations with China would succeed. But it seems like nobody believes him. Especially Europe, which is next after China. Also, China accused the United States of economic terrorism.

Frankly, we are waiting for dollar sales this Friday. The dollar climbed very high and it hurts primarily the States. In addition, the markets are gradually adjusting to changing the Fed's monetary policy vector. The likelihood that the Central Bank will cut rates two or more times by the end of 2019 has risen above 40%, for the first time exceeding the expectations of one decline.

So today we are looking for points for buying of the euro and the pound against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen.