EUR/USD Bearish Alt Crab vs. Bullish Crab Pattern

26 июн. 2018 г.

EUR/USD on the 4 hour time frame is currently in a stalemate
between a bullish Crab Pattern and a bearish Alternative
Crab Pattern. Although the Euro is struggling due to political
uncertainty, technically nonetheless there is still a possibility
for a bullish sentiment, although very bleak at the moment.

Currently EUR/USD is in a bearish channel as can be seen in
the analyis, and earlier in the day today price reached the
top of the channel and got rejected with quite a blow to the
downside. Measuring a target objective from today's highs
by applying the measured move XC of the bearish Alt
Crab Pattern, price reaches the lower trend line at 1.1376
and if you glance over to one year ago (almost exactly
year to date) you will notice that this level was resistance
turned into support, thus, obviously a very key level.

But before price can reach that far down, it still has a few
challenges ahead to do so. Point B of the bearish Crab Pattern is
at a very crucial level where there is some hope for a
reversal to the upside should it hold. Near the point B
level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from 1.1508 to
1.1720, then just below it is the bullish cross over level
of the 10 & 50SMA, and below that is the weekly pivot
point, thus, a significant zone of potential support to
initiate a bullish trend continuation.

Although the bullish 10 & 50SMA cross over level is in a
confluence zone of potential support, the only problem
is the 50SMA itself, namely, it is pointing down quite
steeply, and is therefore a potential signal for further
momentum to the downside. However, SMA's are lagging
indicators, hence, perhaps by the time price reaches that
level the 50SMA might already be leveling out, but
something to keep an eye on nonetheless.

Further key levels are the 1.1852 and 1.1453 levels. A
close above the 1.1852 level would be a very bullish signal
- please see my long term analysis posted on June 23, 2018
to see how far upwards from this level price could go.
Below, the 1.1453 level is significant because a close
below it would invalidate the bullish Crab Pattern, hence,
potentially eliminating all bullish momentum for the mid
to long term.

Trade short 1 (RvR ratio 2.64)
Entry: Close below 10SMA & 1.1670 after the current 4
hour candle closes
S/L: 1.1730
T/P 1: 1.1614
T/P 2: 1.1553
T/P 3: 1.1508

Trade short 2 (RvR ratio 2:1)
Entry: Close below 1.1508
S/L: 1.1574
T/P 4: 1.1453
T/P 5: 1.1376
As always, scale out your profits and adjust your stop/loss
to suit your personal risk management profile.

Happy trading